90136 Green Creek Rd · Mapleton, OR 97430

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1952 1.14 ac lot $114/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect property for those looking for both privacy and a project or place to build new. 1.14 acres with a house in need of significant repairs - being sold as-is and will require cash, private financing, or rehab loan. New membrane roof installed Sept. 2025. Layout offers potential for two separate living spaces and there is 2 driveway entrances. Small unnamed creek borders the NW corner of the property. Green Creek is across the road and Lake Creek leading to the Siuslaw River offers world class fishing just a few steps away across Hwy 36. A 30-35min drive to Florence and Oregon beaches and 1hr to west Eugene. High speed internet available. This quiet, private, setting among the trees with nearby creek sounds and bird songs offers peace and tranquility in the woods. Will consider short term owner carry with 40-50% down. ***Please do not go on property without talking to broker first***

Key facts

• High speed internet
• 2 driveway entrances
• 1.14 acres

Tags

• 1.14 ACRES
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• 2 DRIVEWAY ENTRANCES
• HIGH SPEED INTERNET
• QUIET PRIVATE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mapleton SD 32 (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #175 of 183 in OR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $250k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,594 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $587,401
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -57.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,177
• Equity at exit: $112,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $64,029
• Equity at exit: $173,238

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97430

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $194,880

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $250,000 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Perfect property for those looking for both privacy and a project or place to build new. 1.14 acres with a house in need of significant repairs - being sold as-is and will require cash, private financing, or rehab loan. New membrane roof installed Sept. 2025. Layout offers potential for two separate living spaces and there is 2 driveway entrances. Small unnamed creek borders the NW corner of the property. Green Creek is across the road and Lake Creek leading to the Siuslaw River offers world class fishing just a few steps away across Hwy 36. A 30-35min drive to Florence and Oregon beaches and 1hr to west Eugene. High speed internet available. This quiet, private, setting among the trees with nearby creek sounds and bird songs offers peace and tranquility in the woods. Will consider short term owner carry with 40-50% down. ***Please do not go on property without talking to broker first***

16. 2026-03-26
    listed $275,000 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Perfect property for those looking for both privacy and a project or place to build new. 1.14 acres with a house in need of significant repairs - being sold as-is and will require cash, private financing or rehab loan. New membrane roof installed Sept. 2025. Layout offers potential for two separate living spaces and there is 2 driveway entrances. Small unnamed creek borders the NW corner of the property. Green Creek is across the road and Lake Creek leading to the Siuslaw River offers world class fishing just a few steps away across Hwy 36. A 30-35min drive to Florence and Oregon beaches and 1hr to west Eugene. High speed internet available. This quiet, private, setting among the trees with nearby creek sounds and bird songs offers peace and tranquility in the woods. Will consider short term owner carry with 40-50% down. ***Please do not go on property without talking to broker first***

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $250,000 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Perfect property for those looking for both privacy and a project or place to build new. 1.14 acres with a house in need of significant repairs - being sold as-is and will require cash, private financing or rehab loan. New membrane roof installed Sept. 2025. Layout offers potential for two separate living spaces and there is 2 driveway entrances. Small unnamed creek borders the NW corner of the property. Green Creek is across the road and Lake Creek leading to the Siuslaw River offers world class fishing just a few steps away across Hwy 36. A 30-35min drive to Florence and Oregon beaches and 1hr to west Eugene. High speed internet available. This quiet, private, setting among the trees with nearby creek sounds and bird songs offers peace and tranquility in the woods. Will consider short term owner carry with 40-50% down. ***Please do not go on property without talking to broker first***

18. 2015-08-06
    soldstatus $112,000 Sold
19. 2015-07-01
    status Pending
20. 2015-06-17
    listed $112,000 Active
21. 1991-06-15
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,425 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$439/yr (+$37/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,998
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mapleton SD 32
• NCES district ID: 4107710
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,595
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #13210
• State rank: #175 of 183 in OR

Livability — Mapleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 407

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+488.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $250,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $250,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $275,000 RMLS
• 2015-08-06 Sold (MLS) $112,000 RMLS
• 2015-07-01 Pending — RMLS
• 2015-06-17 Listed $112,000 RMLS
• 1991-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.