3531 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J106 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Condo · 198 Days on market

Built 1980 $569/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. First floor easy access with assigned parking just steps from your front door! This unit offers a functional layout, great natural light. Enjoy a low maintenance lifestyle with association - making it ideal for a primary residence, seasonal getaway or investment property. The community features a pool, clubhouse and beautifully maintained grounds - perfect for relaxing and soaking up the Florida sunshine. Centrally located near shopping, dining, beaches and medical facilities, this condo puts everything Bradenton has to offer right at your fingertips. Don’t miss your chance to own an affordable piece of paradise - schedule your showing

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Newer cabinets
• Stone counter top

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE PANTRY
• STONE COUNTER TOP
• NEWER CABINETS
• SCREENED REAR PORCH
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished; Floor number: 1
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association: Cristina Stewart); Monthly condo fee: $569; Annual association fees: $6,828; Association approval required; Association amenities: cable TV, elevators, laundry, maintenance, pool, recreation facilities; Association fee includes: cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, trash; Community features: clubhouse, association-owned recreation, buyer approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level; Faces southwest; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building J
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Exterior lighting; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Stone countertops; Window treatments; Aluminum-framed windows; Building elevator; Security lights
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($807/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-11,780
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-19,782
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$569
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	21d	1	0.10mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	23d	1	0.10mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	14d	1	0.10mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	3d	1	0.24mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	0.33mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	23d	5	0.41mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	2d	1	0.43mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	23d	1	0.57mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	1d	14	0.59mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.63mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	23d	1	0.63mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	1d	10	0.67mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	11d	1	0.74mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	23d	1	0.75mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	11d	1	0.76mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	19d	1	0.77mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	0.77mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	23d	1	0.82mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	2d	1	0.87mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	23d	1	0.88mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.89mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	23d	1	0.91mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	23d	1	0.97mi
1912 19th Ave W Unit 1912 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	23d	1	0.98mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	11d	1	0.99mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	11d	1	0.99mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	23d	1	1.00mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	15d	1	1.01mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	1.02mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	23d	4	1.04mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	23d	1	1.04mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	23d	1	1.05mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	15d	2	1.05mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	23d	1	1.05mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	15d	1	1.06mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	1.07mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	15d	1	1.08mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	1.09mi
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	23d	1	1.10mi
805 22nd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	790	$1,200	$1.52	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $569 · $6,828/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $79,900
16. 2026-04-14
    price $85,000
17. 2026-04-07
    price $92,000
18. 2026-03-10
    price $96,000
19. 2026-01-29
    price $99,000
20. 2026-01-05
    price $105,000
21. 2025-12-02
    status Active
22. 2025-12-02
    historical
23. 2025-12-01
    listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − HOA: −$6,828
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $21
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $92,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $96,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid