45B Witt Ln Unit 45B · Northville, NY 11931

$149,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition 4,675 sqft lot $162/sqft · 11% below area Est $168k · 11% under $728/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come & Enjoy East End Living at its Finest. 55+ Manufactured Home Community, Aquebogue Mobile Home Court Offers Home Ownership at Affordable Prices! Monthly Land Lease starts at $728 plus $180 in Real Estate Taxes for a total of $908 Per Month - This Single Wide Home Features 2 Bedrooms & 1 & 1/2 Baths, A Large Living Room Area, Open to A Large Eat-In Kitchen - Hallway Laundry Area with Newer Washer/Dryer. Newer Refrigerator & Stove - New Roof, CAC & 2 Window AC's too, - Pipes all replaced with Copper, Heating System Replaced - Newer Toilets & Upgraded Electric -

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Newer washer dryer
• Newer refrigerator

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM AREA
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HALLWAY LAUNDRY AREA
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER WASHER DRYER
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.74%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,000
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -10.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44B Witt Ln	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	7mo	$162,000	$175	94
49B Witt Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	5mo	$168,000	$182	89
39B Witt Ln	0.00mi	2/1.5	980 (+6%)	17mo	$130,000	$133	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $204,228
• Equity at exit: $135,131

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 13.06×
• Total profit: $506,494
• Equity at exit: $291,415

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$728
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$978
• Net cashflow: $1,916

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,234

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,019	-5% $1,968	+0% $1,916	+5% $1,864	+10% $1,812
Rent	-10% $1,548	-5% $1,732	+0% $1,916	+5% $2,100	+10% $2,284
Rate	-1.0pp $1,991	-0.5pp $1,954	base $1,916	+0.5pp $1,877	+1.0pp $1,837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $728 · $8,736/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,999 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $149,999 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Come & Enjoy East End Living at its Finest. 55+ Manufactured Home Community, Aquebogue Mobile Home Court Offers Home Ownership at Affordable Prices! Monthly Land Lease starts at $728 plus $180 in Real Estate Taxes for a total of $908 Per Month - This Single Wide Home Features 2 Bedrooms & 1 & 1/2 Baths, A Large Living Room Area, Open to A Large Eat-In Kitchen - Hallway Laundry Area with Newer Washer/Dryer. Newer Refrigerator & Stove - New Roof, CAC & 2 Window AC's too, - Pipes all replaced with Copper, Heating System Replaced - Newer Toilets & Upgraded Electric -

15. 2026-04-14
    listed $159,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Come & Enjoy East End Living at its Finest. 55+ Manufactured Home Community, Aquebogue Mobile Home Court Offers Home Ownership at Affordable Prices! Monthly Land Lease starts at $728 plus $180 in Real Estate Taxes for a total of $908 Per Month - This Single Wide Home Features 2 Bedrooms & 1 & 1/2 Baths, A Large Living Room Area, Open to A Large Eat-In Kitchen - Hallway Laundry Area with Newer Washer/Dryer. Newer Refrigerator & Stove - New Roof, CAC & 2 Window AC's too, - Pipes all replaced with Copper, Heating System Replaced - Newer Toilets & Upgraded Electric -

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,472
• − Management: −$4,472
• − HOA: −$8,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $22,458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,390
• After-tax cash flow: $17,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some repairs and maintenance needed, including roof repair, exterior painting, and landscaping. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent satellite image shows significant damage to the roof.
• Moderate exterior siding — The exterior siding appears weathered and some areas show discoloration.
• Minor landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior would improve the home's curb appeal and interior condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both landscaping and trimming — Landscaping and trimming would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent satellite image shows significant damage to the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding appears weathered and some areas show discoloration.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior would improve the home's curb appeal and interior condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and trimming — Landscaping and trimming would improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid