1604 Ellington Dr · Dundee, FL 33838

$257,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2017 6,325 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge of Dundee. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge of Dundee offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND.

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Large walk-in closet
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM WOOD CABINETRY
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,401 (public records); Building area approximately 1,921 (public records); Lot about 0.15 acre; Estimated building area in meters available
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA: Garrison Land (annual fee $400; $33.33/month); Association fees required; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing; Completed condition; Residential zoning (PD)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by LGI Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Sliding doors; Trees and landscaped yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest system; Blinds; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $187k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,771 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $120,634
• Equity at exit: $232,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $371,022
• Equity at exit: $501,043

Cash invested: $72,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,352
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,202/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,333

Max offer price $202,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-239	+0% $-312	+5% $-385	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-389	+0% $-312	+5% $-236	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-247	base $-312	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,475
• Closing costs: $7,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	5d	1	0.32mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	5d	1	0.48mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	25d	1	0.69mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	25d	1	0.69mi
29 Coyer Rd Unit 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,000	$1.98	25d	1	1.40mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $257,900 Active
3. 2018-06-28
   soldstatus $187,000 Sold 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge of Dundee. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge of Dundee offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND.

4. 2018-06-04
   status Pending 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge of Dundee. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge of Dundee offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND.

5. 2018-04-03
   price $190,900 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge of Dundee. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge of Dundee offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND.

6. 2018-02-23
   listed $187,900 Active 755-char remark

   Show marketing remark (755 chars)

   The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge of Dundee. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge of Dundee offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND.

7. 2017-05-23
   soldstatus $2,444,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,202 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,202 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,446
• − Property taxes: −$4,202
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,503
• Taxable loss: −$8,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $257,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-28 Sold (MLS) $187,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-03 Price Changed $190,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-23 Listed $187,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $2,444,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,202 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.