172 Hummingbird Hl · Gratton, VA 24651

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1971 $52/sqft · 49% below area Est $138k · 49% under ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 10 years.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#453 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tazewell County Public School District (town): math 67% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #21 of 131 in VA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tazewell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.02%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,273
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -49.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Laredo St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,378 (+2%)	15mo	$130,000	$94	80
553 Good Neighbor Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$163	71
175 Hickory Ridge Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+4%)	8mo	$120,000	$85	54
192 Yale St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-9%)	19mo	$163,000	$133	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $15,724
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $48,539
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24651

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $445	+0% $425	+5% $405	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $381	+0% $425	+5% $469	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $443	base $425	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $70,000 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    2 bedroom 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 10 years.

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $80,000 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    2 bedroom 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 10 years.

18. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $150,000
19. 2022-07-14
    soldstatus $150,000 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Very nice 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a newly installed shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 5 years and all the ductwork for the heat pump is new.

20. 2022-07-14
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Very nice 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a newly installed shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 5 years and all the ductwork for the heat pump is new.

21. 2022-05-17
    listed $145,000 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Very nice 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a newly installed shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 5 years and all the ductwork for the heat pump is new.

22. 2022-05-17
    listed $145,000

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Very nice 2-bedroom, 1 bath ranch home located just 12 minutes from Tazewell. There are 2 additional rooms that are currently used as bedrooms but do not have closets and a newly installed shower in the laundry room. The roof was replaced within the last 5 years and all the ductwork for the heat pump is new.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥86°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $4,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tazewell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103810
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,003
• Composite: 60.16/100
• National rank: #865
• State rank: #21 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gratton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #19361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gratton, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,683

Population outlook (Tazewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,275 people
• By 2030: 35,719 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 30,875 · -19.3%
• By 2050: 26,798 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 19,286 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 13,631 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tazewell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.2 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.72%
• Current HPI: 153.2259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-51.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $70,000 MTCBOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $80,000 MTCBOR
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-14 Sold (MLS) $150,000 SWVAR
• 2022-07-14 Sold (MLS) $150,000 TVRMLS
• 2022-05-17 Listed $145,000 SWVAR
• 2022-05-17 Listed $145,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.