112 Alexander Ave · Lyons, GA 30436

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1962 $121/sqft · 70% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom 3 bath brick ranch is on a corner lot minutes away from downtown Lyons. The home features an open floor plan, a functional galley kitchen with easy access to the laundry room, making daily living a breeze. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard complete with a concrete patio. A convenient 2-car carport adds covered parking and extra storage. The practical layout makes this home a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

Key facts

• Fenced-in back yard
• Spacious side yard
• Corner lot

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACK YARD
• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lyons Primary School (557 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County Middle School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 670 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County High School (math 28% / reading 17%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $145k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,114
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 69.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
365 N Hall St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-9%)	22mo	$155,000	$115	53
269 E Grady Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,596 (+7%)	1mo	$32,000	$20	53
175 Hilton Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,378 (-7%)	19mo	$146,000	$106	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $110,578
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $315,649
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $249	+0% $198	+5% $147	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $131	+0% $198	+5% $264	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $243	base $198	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 193 DOM
18. 2026-01-29
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 3 bath brick ranch is on a corner lot minutes away from downtown Lyons. The home features an open floor plan, a functional galley kitchen with easy access to the laundry room, making daily living a breeze. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard complete with a concrete patio. A convenient 2-car carport adds covered parking and extra storage. The practical layout makes this home a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

19. 2025-12-30
    status Under Contract 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 3 bath brick ranch is on a corner lot minutes away from downtown Lyons. The home features an open floor plan, a functional galley kitchen with easy access to the laundry room, making daily living a breeze. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard complete with a concrete patio. A convenient 2-car carport adds covered parking and extra storage. The practical layout makes this home a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

20. 2025-12-13
    listed $169,000 New 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 3 bath brick ranch is on a corner lot minutes away from downtown Lyons. The home features an open floor plan, a functional galley kitchen with easy access to the laundry room, making daily living a breeze. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard complete with a concrete patio. A convenient 2-car carport adds covered parking and extra storage. The practical layout makes this home a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

21. 2025-11-14
    listed $180,000 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Enjoy the best of both worlds — the convenience of living within city limits and the peaceful feel of a quiet neighborhood. This cozy brick home offers 1,488 heated square feet with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, making it a perfect fit for families or anyone seeking comfort and space. Situated on a . 44-acre corner lot, the property features a spacious fenced-in back and side yard, ideal for kids, pets, and outdoor gatherings. With its prime location, classic charm, and endless potential, this home is a fantastic opportunity whether you’re looking for your next residence or an investment property. Contact Courtney Murray (912-246-3962) today to schedule your private showing and see all that this property has to offer! Offers will be considered.

22. 2021-10-18
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$146
• After-tax cash flow: $2,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #17443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, GA
• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+45.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) $145,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $169,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $180,000 Fizber.com
• 2021-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,360 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.