505 Citrus Cir · San Juan, TX 78589

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · Manufactured public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1986 4,017 sqft lot $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Orangewood Estates 55 + Community - City of San Juan - Move In Ready, Beautiful, fully furnished Mobile Home! The Home has 3 bedrooms, 3 Baths, 2 Living Areas. Total Living Area 1,630 square feet. Sitting on a 4,016 square foot Lot. It has new laminate flooring in the 3 bedrooms and in the Texas Room, installed in February of 2025. All windows are covered with Cordless Honeycomb Cellular Top-Down/Bottom Up Window Shades, installed in January of 2024. New Ceiling Fans were installed in February of 2025. A 3-Person Hot Tub was installed in January of 2025 and is included with the sale. The carport has Roll Down Privacy curtains that were installed in December of 2023 and a 20 X 18 Concrete Parking Slab was poured in March of 2025. The Community has a Club House with a Pool Table and a Shuffle Board Court. Close to Business 83 and Stewart, just South of Ridge. Model Marlette Serial RAD0206402 .

Key facts

• 3-person hot tub
• New ceiling fans
• 4,017 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW CEILING FANS
• 3-PERSON HOT TUB
• CONCRETE PARKING SLAB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,142
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $33,018
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	0.27mi
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	19d	1	0.42mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	44d	1	0.61mi
1806 Angelina Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,250	$1.09	23d	1	0.72mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	44d	1	0.98mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.17mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	44d	1	1.25mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	1.27mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	44d	1	1.36mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.37mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	14d	1	1.39mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	1.41mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	23d	1	1.42mi
1504 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-01-02
    listed $115,000 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Orangewood Estates 55 + Community - City of San Juan - Move In Ready, Beautiful, fully furnished Mobile Home! The Home has 3 bedrooms, 3 Baths, 2 Living Areas. Total Living Area 1,630 square feet. Sitting on a 4,016 square foot Lot. It has new laminate flooring in the 3 bedrooms and in the Texas Room, installed in February of 2025. All windows are covered with Cordless Honeycomb Cellular Top-Down/Bottom Up Window Shades, installed in January of 2024. New Ceiling Fans were installed in February of 2025. A 3-Person Hot Tub was installed in January of 2025 and is included with the sale. The carport has Roll Down Privacy curtains that were installed in December of 2023 and a 20 X 18 Concrete Parking Slab was poured in March of 2025. The Community has a Club House with a Pool Table and a Shuffle Board Court. Close to Business 83 and Stewart, just South of Ridge. Model Marlette Serial RAD0206402 .

17. 2022-03-23
    soldstatus
18. 2010-01-26
    soldstatus
19. 2004-03-11
    soldstatus
20. 2003-12-29
    soldstatus
21. 2003-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $3,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,744 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.