301 W Hartford Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$109,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1959 7,545 sqft lot Est $183k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 7,545 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,545 (source: assessor)
• Financial info: Property tax information available
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Fixer condition; Asphalt road surface
• Construction: Painted block construction; Composition roof (see remarks / other)
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Chain link fencing; Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry; Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Possible 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; See remarks for additional cooling details
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $110k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.28%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,248 (0%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	84
217 W Fairhaven Rd W	0.10mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	79
215 W Greenwich Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-6%)	9mo	$173,000	$147	75
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+0%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	75
418 W Hartford Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,260 (+1%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	73
173 W Jamestown Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,223 (-2%)	13mo	$218,500	$179	71
610 S York Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-11%)	3mo	$115,000	$103	63
437 W Hartford Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,246 (-0%)	17mo	$114,000	$91	52
426 W Essex Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (+11%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	50
429 W Greenwich Rd	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,293 (+4%)	16mo	$175,000	$135	48
443 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-7%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	40
504 W Hartford Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+10%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $96,229
• Equity at exit: $99,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.28×
• Total profit: $254,727
• Equity at exit: $213,512

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $634	-5% $602	+0% $571	+5% $540	+10% $509
Rent	-10% $445	-5% $508	+0% $571	+5% $635	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $627	-0.5pp $599	base $571	+0.5pp $543	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $109,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $5,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $5,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+838.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $109,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-02-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-12-23 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
• 2020-12-12 Price Changed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2020-11-02 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2020-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $11,717 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.