3309 Birdie Ln · Abilene, TX 79606

$499,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 10,280 sqft lot Est $483k · at est. $53/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner Agent. Want a minute golf cart drive to the golf course? Discover the epitome of luxury living with our stunning 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom plus office nestled on a prime corner lot! Embrace tranquility as you step into the spacious living area, adorned with natural light cascading through large windows, creating a warm and inviting ambiance. Entertain with ease in the gourmet kitchen, complete with sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. Retreat to the expansive master suite, featuring a private en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet fit for a fashionista. Need space for your vehicles and more? Look no further! Our home comes with a rare 3-car garage, providing p

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Corner lot
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• MANICURED BACKYARD OASIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West El (428 students, 21% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,029/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,880 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $482,922
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3309 Birdie Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,439 (0%)	1mo	$499,900	$205	99
3326 Birdie	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,481 (+2%)	0mo	$508,000	$205	92
3418 Ace	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,420 (-1%)	0mo	$465,000	$192	90
6625 Tin Cup Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,278 (-7%)	0mo	$469,900	$206	88
3318 Birdie	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,288 (-6%)	1mo	$469,000	$205	85
3418 Double Eagle Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,350 (-4%)	1mo	$465,000	$198	80
6433 Tin Cup	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,350 (-4%)	1mo	$479,000	$204	80
37 Pinehurst St	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,433 (-0%)	2mo	$375,000	$154	68
6410 Glen Abbey	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,159 (-12%)	3mo	$415,000	$192	64
6134 Laurel Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,532 (+4%)	2mo	$305,150	$121	62
13 Winners Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,224 (-9%)	3mo	$339,900	$153	54
29 Pebble Bch	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,270 (-7%)	1mo	$320,000	$141	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-80,317
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $697
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,440

Max offer price $452,880

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-152	+0% $-325	+5% $-498	+10% $-670
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-484	+0% $-325	+5% $-166	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-198	base $-325	+0.5pp $-454	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6901 Glen Abbey St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,795	$2.30	23d	1	0.24mi
7061 Tin Cup Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,495	$2.12	13d	1	0.39mi
3726 Pensacola Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2126	$7,000	$3.29	1d	1	0.44mi
3626 Yamini Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,799	$1.57	23d	1	0.45mi
5733 Legacy Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$5,000	$2.71	6d	1	1.16mi
7534 John Carroll Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,795	$1.41	5d	1	1.18mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	26d	1	1.19mi
6609 Summerwood Trl Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,195	$1.73	7d	1	1.22mi
8345 South Rdg Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$4,000	$1.74	9d	1	1.28mi
4742 Kevin Ct Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,400	$2.09	7d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $499,900 Active
3. 2026-04-08
   historical
4. 2026-01-09
   listed $499,900 Active
5. 2026-01-08
   historical
6. 2025-12-01
   listed $499,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,868
• − Management: −$3,868
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$12,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $499,900 NTREIS