412 Kentucky Ave · Lorain, OH 44052

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1915 4,356 sqft lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

412 Kentucky Ave is a charming, lovingly maintained Cape Cod just two blocks from the sparkling shores of Lake Erie. Filled with warmth and thoughtful updates, this home offers the perfect blend of character and modern comfort. The beautifully modernized kitchen is a standout—featuring updated finishes, a convenient dishwasher, and a layout spacious enough for a cozy eat-in area. It’s the kind of kitchen that invites slow mornings, shared meals, and everyday connection. Upstairs, you’ll find two inviting bedrooms and a full bath, creating a comfortable and peaceful retreat. The home’s functionality continues with a basement that includes a shower and laundry area, id

Key facts

• Modernized kitchen
• Large backyard
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• MODERNIZED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE BACKYARD
• TWO BLOCKS FROM LAKE ERIE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.9% in Lorain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#595 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, health & safety D.
• Lorain City (suburban): math 13% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #633 of 656 in OH (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,129 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,087
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -4.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Kansas Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,176 (+1%)	8mo	$135,000	$115	87
1413 F St	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,075 (-8%)	5mo	$129,000	$120	80
1330 Maryland Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (+5%)	7mo	$150,000	$123	70
223 Georgia Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,175 (+1%)	6mo	$75,000	$64	70
925 E St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,233 (+6%)	4mo	$115,000	$93	65
228 Florida Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-4%)	4mo	$71,500	$64	62
207 Georgia Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+6%)	6mo	$79,000	$64	60
1519 Maine Ave	0.29mi	2/1.5	1,008 (-13%)	7mo	$115,000	$114	56
2417 G St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (-1%)	6mo	$179,900	$156	56
1401 Missouri Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,194 (+3%)	5mo	$168,000	$141	54
301 Idaho Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,338 (+15%)	6mo	$125,000	$93	48
2222 Adams St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (-12%)	5mo	$91,000	$89	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,448
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,365
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44052

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $354/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $204	+0% $170	+5% $136	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $126	+0% $170	+5% $214	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $200	base $170	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Fillmore Ave Unit 1510 Fillmore Ave: Left Unit Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	896	$900	$1.00	8d	1	0.31mi
1510 Fillmore Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	896	$900	$1.00	8d	1	0.31mi
860 Colorado Ave Lorain, OH	2.0	1.0	825	$1,225	$1.48	44d	1	0.49mi
810 E Erie Ave #4 Lorain, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$895	$0.75	44d	1	0.49mi
2327 S Jefferson Blvd Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1485	$1,531	$1.03	21d	1	0.55mi
1109 Euclid Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1066	$995	$0.93	2d	1	0.97mi
1630 Euclid Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.02mi
716 Dakota Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,650	$1.11	2d	1	1.19mi
420 W 12th St Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	4d	1	1.27mi
516 Washington Ave Unit 516 A Lorain, OH	1.0	1.0	1008	$915	$0.91	44d	1	1.28mi
629 Vermont Dr Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	2d	1	1.30mi
1028 W 5th St Lorain, OH	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	44d	1	1.34mi
521 W 14th St Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	968	$950	$0.98	44d	1	1.36mi
619 Root Rd Lorain, OH	2.0	1.5	900	$1,100	$1.22	2d	1	1.37mi
1724 Lexington Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,215	$1.06	24d	1	1.38mi
1053 Washington Ave Unit 4 Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	44d	1	1.44mi
1053 Washington Ave Unit 2 Lorain, OH	1.0	1.0	990	$799	$0.81	13d	1	1.44mi
1703 Oakdale Ave Lorain, OH	3.0	1.0	1237	$1,300	$1.05	3d	1	1.44mi
1031 W 9th St Lorain, OH	2.0	1.0	854	$895	$1.05	24d	1	1.45mi
1421 Long Ave Lorain, OH	2.0	1.0	719	$1,140	$1.59	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $119,900 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $119,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Contingent 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Contingent 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Contingent 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Contingent 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Contingent 25 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    historical Contingent 1180-char remark
13. 2026-05-06
    listed $119,900 Active 1180-char remark
14. 2026-01-16
    historical
15. 2025-12-23
    historical Contingent
16. 2025-12-10
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $354 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$758/yr (+$63/mo · 213.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$354
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $44
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lorain City
• NCES district ID: 3904426
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $32,823
• Composite: 15.81/100
• National rank: #9266
• State rank: #633 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lorain

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #10183

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorain, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 69,409
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,282
• Household income: $45,023
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 21% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.23%
• Current HPI: 186.9657
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-06 Listed $119,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-23 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2025-12-10 Listed $119,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $354 · -57.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.