303 Toucan St · Rochester Hills, MI 48309

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $848/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This like new manufactured home is ready to welcome you to the desirable 55+ community of Avon on the Lake. This well-maintained home is move-in ready with many recent updates and upgrades throughout. The bright open floor plan includes a spacious living room with plenty of room for hosting or cozy movie nights. The kitchen is a chefs dream. Outside ignore Michigan winters with your covered carport, and in the primary suite discover a walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks, garden tub, separate shower with seating, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms include ceiling fans and ample closet space. Community amenities include a renovated clubhouse, fitness center, walking path around the lake, dog park, picnic areas, laundry facility, and RV/boat storage. Additional features include: New carpet and paint (2021) New roof (July 2024) New heat tape (September 2024) Samsung washer (2023) This is a manufactured home on leased land. HOA reflects total monthly dues to community. This should be confirmed with community. Pets are an addition fee monthly Manufactured home loans can be accepted reach our for a lender.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Covered carport
• Private bath

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DOUBLE SINKS
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed — contact association; Directions: upon entry to Avon on the Lake; Cross street: W of Crooks S of 59
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $848; HOA fee includes trash

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on one finished level
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Paved road access; Irregular lot shape; Lot approximately 0.1 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.8% in Rochester Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#127 in MI, #3,163 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Avondale School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #162 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,808
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2930 Devondale Rd	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,321 (-2%)	22mo	$275,000	$208	54
3025 Rockhaven Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,232 (-8%)	16mo	$300,000	$244	47
2897 Midvale Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-8%)	16mo	$250,000	$202	46
2694 Vendome Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,506 (+12%)	2mo	$350,000	$232	45
3344 Bathurst Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+8%)	10mo	$275,000	$190	44
3211 Coolidge Hwy	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,485 (+10%)	13mo	$375,000	$253	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,175
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $33,648
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48309

• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$848
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $348	+0% $317	+5% $286	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $228	+0% $317	+5% $407	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $340	base $317	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 W Auburn Rd Rochester Hills, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1264	$1,759	$1.39	6d	1	0.32mi
2900 W Hamlin Rd Rochester Hills, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1248	$3,345	$2.68	0d	39	0.61mi
2450 Norfolk Unit 10202 Rochester Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,640	$1.22	0d	1	0.67mi
2175 W Auburn Rd Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	1.5	1751	$2,200	$1.26	18d	1	0.75mi
3017 Tribute Creek Blvd Oakland Charter Township, MI	2.0	2.0	1455	$2,552	$1.75	0d	3	1.04mi
124 Optimist Auburn Hills, MI	3.0	2.0–2.5	2123	$3,042	$1.43	0d	5	1.28mi
1886 Ruby Ave Rochester Hills, MI	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,600	$1.48	0d	1	1.32mi
192 Raleigh Ave Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	45d	1	1.43mi
3200 River Oaks Blvd Rochester Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,128	$1.31	0d	10	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $848 · $10,176/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $100,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    This like new manufactured home is ready to welcome you to the desirable 55+ community of Avon on the Lake. This well-maintained home is move-in ready with many recent updates and upgrades throughout. The bright open floor plan includes a spacious living room with plenty of room for hosting or cozy movie nights. The kitchen is a chefs dream. Outside ignore Michigan winters with your covered carport, and in the primary suite discover a walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks, garden tub, separate shower with seating, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms include ceiling fans and ample closet space. Community amenities include a renovated clubhouse, fitness center, walking path around the lake, dog park, picnic areas, laundry facility, and RV/boat storage. Additional features include: New carpet and paint (2021) New roof (July 2024) New heat tape (September 2024) Samsung washer (2023) This is a manufactured home on leased land. HOA reflects total monthly dues to community. This should be confirmed with community. Pets are an addition fee monthly Manufactured home loans can be accepted reach our for a lender.

17. 2026-05-28
    listed $100,000 Active 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    This like new manufactured home is ready to welcome you to the desirable 55+ community of Avon on the Lake. This well-maintained home is move-in ready with many recent updates and upgrades throughout. The bright open floor plan includes a spacious living room with plenty of room for hosting or cozy movie nights. The kitchen is a chefs dream. Outside ignore Michigan winters with your covered carport, and in the primary suite discover a walk-in closet and private bath with double sinks, garden tub, separate shower with seating, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms include ceiling fans and ample closet space. Community amenities include a renovated clubhouse, fitness center, walking path around the lake, dog park, picnic areas, laundry facility, and RV/boat storage. Additional features include: New carpet and paint (2021) New roof (July 2024) New heat tape (September 2024) Samsung washer (2023) This is a manufactured home on leased land. HOA reflects total monthly dues to community. This should be confirmed with community. Pets are an addition fee monthly Manufactured home loans can be accepted reach our for a lender.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − HOA: −$10,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $3,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community offers a good condition with recent updates and a bright open floor plan.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avondale School District
• NCES district ID: 2603690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,549
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4442
• State rank: #162 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #3163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester Hills, MI
• City population: 44,714
• Population (ZIP): 30,254

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.99%
• Current HPI: 201.9197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP