226 Pond Rd · Manchester, ME 04351

$289,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1873 2.49 ac lot $374/sqft · 98% above area Est $482k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large lot and great location come with this Colonial home on popular Pond Road, Manchester. Home sits up from the road and has good curb appeal and nice views, large rectangular shaped 2.49-acre lot with good road frontage, spacious back yard area, 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, spacious kitchen with laundry area, formal dining room, wood flooring, living room, second level features the bedrooms along with a full bath, ½ bath downstairs, good size rooms. House needs work and is somewhat of a fixer-upper, but it is very much workable. Lots of windows and space, private well and public sewer, BBHW heat, good front yard area, house sits back from the road, nice size barn that is great for storage, more. Much potential, may be a good gentleman's farm, etc. , other possibilities. Bring your ideas. Will not go with VA or FHA type financing.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• RECTANGULAR SHAPED LOT
• GOOD ROAD FRONTAGE
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 38 (rural): math 89% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #27 of 112 in ME (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $290k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1873 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $197,040 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1873 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,960
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -39.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $140,442
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $427,083
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04351

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,316

Max offer price $241,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-191	+0% $-273	+5% $-355	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-351	+0% $-273	+5% $-195	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-199	base $-273	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-10-01
   price $289,900 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   Large lot and great location come with this Colonial home on popular Pond Road, Manchester. Home sits up from the road and has good curb appeal and nice views, large rectangular shaped 2.49-acre lot with good road frontage, spacious back yard area, 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, spacious kitchen with laundry area, formal dining room, wood flooring, living room, second level features the bedrooms along with a full bath, ½ bath downstairs, good size rooms. House needs work and is somewhat of a fixer-upper, but it is very much workable. Lots of windows and space, private well and public sewer, BBHW heat, good front yard area, house sits back from the road, nice size barn that is great for storage, more. Much potential, may be a good gentleman's farm, etc. , other possibilities. Bring your ideas. Will not go with VA or FHA type financing.

2. 2025-05-29
   listed $320,000 Active 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   Large lot and great location come with this Colonial home on popular Pond Road, Manchester. Home sits up from the road and has good curb appeal and nice views, large rectangular shaped 2.49-acre lot with good road frontage, spacious back yard area, 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, spacious kitchen with laundry area, formal dining room, wood flooring, living room, second level features the bedrooms along with a full bath, ½ bath downstairs, good size rooms. House needs work and is somewhat of a fixer-upper, but it is very much workable. Lots of windows and space, private well and public sewer, BBHW heat, good front yard area, house sits back from the road, nice size barn that is great for storage, more. Much potential, may be a good gentleman's farm, etc. , other possibilities. Bring your ideas. Will not go with VA or FHA type financing.

3. 2016-05-05
   soldstatus $114,000 Sold 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Location, Location, Location. If you are looking for an investment property or a chance to purchase a home to remodel and make your dream home look no further. This property has 2.5 acres and is located on the popular Pond Road in Manchester. Don't miss your chance to own this one of a kind property call today.

4. 2016-03-22
   status Pending 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Location, Location, Location. If you are looking for an investment property or a chance to purchase a home to remodel and make your dream home look no further. This property has 2.5 acres and is located on the popular Pond Road in Manchester. Don't miss your chance to own this one of a kind property call today.

5. 2016-01-19
   listed $129,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Location, Location, Location. If you are looking for an investment property or a chance to purchase a home to remodel and make your dream home look no further. This property has 2.5 acres and is located on the popular Pond Road in Manchester. Don't miss your chance to own this one of a kind property call today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$842/yr (+$70/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$8,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 38
• NCES district ID: 2314788
• Math proficiency: 89% ▲ 54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 29.00%
• Median HH income: $63,163
• Composite: 76.39/100
• National rank: #107
• State rank: #27 of 112 in ME

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,464

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 19% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.10%
• Current HPI: 372.6818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+124.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $289,900 MREIS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $320,000 MREIS
• 2016-05-05 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MREIS
• 2016-03-22 Pending — MREIS
• 2016-01-19 Listed $129,000 MREIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,259 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.