6304 E Valencia Dr · Edinburg, TX 78541

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 324 Days on market

Built 2003 7,471 sqft lot $61/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice investment starter home in quiet and tranquil mixed subdivision north of Edinburg.

Key facts

• 7,471 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 324 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.4% in Edinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#784 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.88%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -56.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $24,657
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $64,195
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78541

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,306/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $606	+0% $586	+5% $566	+10% $546
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $532	+0% $586	+5% $641	+10% $695
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $604	base $586	+0.5pp $568	+1.0pp $549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4929 Rio Red Cir Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	24d	1	1.28mi
4621 N Jackson Rd Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	21d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 319 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 314 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 305 DOM
15. 2025-07-29
    listed $70,000 Active 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    Very nice investment starter home in quiet and tranquil mixed subdivision north of Edinburg.

16. 2025-02-13
    historical $500
17. 2025-01-07
    listed $500
18. 2024-12-07
    historical $500
19. 2024-11-05
    listed $70,000 Active
20. 2024-08-02
    price $70,000
21. 2024-07-03
    listed $500
22. 2024-05-03
    price $80,000
23. 2023-12-02
    price $99,000
24. 2023-11-03
    listed $120,000 Active
25. 2016-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,306
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $5,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — Edinburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #784
• US rank: #14319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 178,279
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,710
• Household income: $52,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 49% White 8% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 73% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.63%
• Current HPI: 215.1057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-41.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-29 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-13 Rental Removed $500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed for Rent $500 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-12-07 Rental Removed $500 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-05 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed for Rent $500 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $80,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-12-02 Price Changed $99,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,306 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.