7037 Lofty Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$133,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1965 4,050 sqft lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7037 Lofty Drive, where comfort, updates, and Florida living come together. Featuring a complete 2022 facelift!! This turn key home offers a functional layout & a prime location all without breaking the bank.   The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, opening to the main living and dining areas for a connected feel. Step outside to enjoy the backyard space perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor oasis. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, parks, medical facilities, and Gulf beaches!  This property offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, seasonal home, or invest

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Backyard space
• Prime location

Tags

• AMPLE CABINETRY
• BACKYARD SPACE
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes reported for 2024; Private maintained road
• HOA & community: Has HOA (optional membership); Annual association fee: $50 (covers private road); Monthly equivalent: $4.17; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; 2-space carport
• Security: Private road access included with association
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sprinkler meter; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces south; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a single-wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Additional porch/covered area; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Shed(s); Irrigation equipment; Landscaped yard; Level lot; Near marina; Near public transit; Paved and private; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Thermostat; Window shades
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $133k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Bayonet Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 737 students, 84% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $133k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,020 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.02%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,100
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7215 Lofty Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	672 (+2%)	7mo	$94,900	$141	82
11329 Leisure Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	744 (+13%)	8mo	$63,000	$85	62
6515 Margaret Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	672 (+2%)	8mo	$50,000	$74	60
7408 Cynthia Ct	0.69mi	2/1.0	636 (-4%)	8mo	$160,000	$252	51
6506 Cathy Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	689 (+4%)	14mo	$55,000	$80	51
6612 Roosevelt Dr	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-13%)	11mo	$17,000	$30	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,448
• Equity at exit: $19,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,903
• Equity at exit: $11,499

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $133,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $282	+0% $245	+5% $207	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $187	+0% $245	+5% $302	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $278	base $245	+0.5pp $210	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	0.19mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	6d	1	0.45mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	4d	1	0.58mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	25d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $133,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $133,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $133,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $133,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $133,000 Active
16. 2026-03-30
    historical $1,600
17. 2026-03-21
    historical
18. 2026-03-15
    price $137,770
19. 2026-03-14
    listed $1,600
20. 2026-03-14
    historical $1,600
21. 2026-03-10
    price $147,220
22. 2026-01-17
    listed $1,600
23. 2026-01-17
    price $147,770
24. 2026-01-12
    listed $167,700 Active
25. 2024-01-10
    price $127,000
26. 2023-09-20
    price $139,000
27. 2023-05-20
    price $157,000
28. 2023-05-07
    price $157,700
29. 2023-01-21
    listed $159,000 Active
30. 2022-08-13
    historical
31. 2022-07-06
    price $169,000
32. 2022-07-04
    price $147,000
33. 2022-07-04
    price $161,000
34. 2022-05-13
    status Active
35. 2022-05-12
    historical
36. 2022-05-12
    price $147,000
37. 2022-05-06
    price $127,000
38. 2022-04-29
    price $167,000
39. 2022-04-28
    listed $127,000 Active
40. 2006-08-02
    soldstatus $39,000
41. 2006-05-30
    listed $39,900
42. 1997-02-28
    soldstatus $20,000
43. 1994-03-29
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$51/yr (+$4/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$1,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable income: $863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$207
• After-tax cash flow: $2,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+682.4% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Rental Removed $1,600 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $137,770 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,600 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $147,220 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Listed for Rent $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $147,770 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $167,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-20 Price Changed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-07 Price Changed $157,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-21 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-04 Price Changed $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-04 Price Changed $161,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-29 Price Changed $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Listed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-02 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-30 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.