20863 waalew Unit b2 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition Est $109k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Los Ranchos! This beautifully remodeled double-wide home is located on the desirable west side of the community and is truly move-in ready. Featuring an open-concept floor plan, the spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining area and updated kitchen with modern finishes and a breakfast bar. Recent renovations throughout create a bright, stylish, and inviting atmosphere. Additional features include an indoor laundry room, covered carport, storage sheds, and privacy fencing. Enjoy all that Los Ranchos has to offer, including a clubhouse, swimming pool, sports courts, and fishing lake. Don't miss this opportunity to own a fully remodeled home in one of Apple Valley's most

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Updated kitchen
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• REMODELED DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for residency; Pet policy: contact management
• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $1,020
• HOA & community: Land lease in place

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; 1 carport space; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Facing front
• Construction: Mobile home size approximately 12 ft by 62 ft; Year built recorded from public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Pool details: see remarks; Located in a community with a lake; Park name: Los Ranchos; Lot characterized as 0–1 unit per acre; Mobile home remains on site (12 ft by 62 ft)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; Entry at level 1
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C83	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+2%)	3mo	$92,000	$61	86
20843 WAALEW Rd Unit C48	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+2%)	4mo	$135,000	$89	82
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C80	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+2%)	9mo	$140,000	$93	81
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C116	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (+3%)	9mo	$160,000	$105	79
20843 Waalew Rd #C136	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (+7%)	1mo	$110,710	$69	78
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B2	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,488 (0%)	9mo	$65,000	$44	78
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C60	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (+4%)	9mo	$120,000	$77	77
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B169	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,520 (+2%)	0mo	$108,000	$71	77
20843 Waalew Unit C34	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+13%)	0mo	$45,000	$27	70
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C44	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-13%)	8mo	$95,000	$73	63
20683 Waalew SPC B54 Rd Unit B54	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	9mo	$130,600	$91	63
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B4	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+8%)	10mo	$67,500	$42	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $39
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $43,205
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	43d	1	0.64mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	24d	1	1.25mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	43d	1	1.42mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $3,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled double-wide home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal. Painting the exterior and trimming the bushes can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Trim bushes — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Trim bushes — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $145,000 CRMLS