24 Haven Ln · Port Henry, NY 12974

$182,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1999 0.60 ac lot $108/sqft · 30% above area Est $141k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured Home- 5 Bedrooms on .60 acres near Lake Champlain. Located on a quiet dead-end lane with views of beautiful Lake Champlain. This spacious home offers comfort, privacy, and charm.Landscaped with flowers,shrubs,a small man-made pond(for goldfish)and a wooded backyard,circular driveway and attached garage, The interior consists of 5 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths(Spa Tub),spacious kitchen,dining area,living room with fireplace,family room laundry area, small pantry,workshop/hobby room and lots of storage.Appliances included.Enjoy the outdoors from the decks.Conveniently located near the bridge to VT,I-87 and close to all Adirondack recreations.

Key facts

• Man-made pond
• Quiet dead-end lane
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END LANE
• MAN-MADE POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Port Henry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in NY, #3,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $182k implies a 1417% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,137 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,513
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: 29.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Waldo Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	20mo	$149,000	$87	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $44,852
• Equity at exit: $108,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $135,184
• Equity at exit: $190,825

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12974

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,968/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $176,992

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $23	+0% $-28	+5% $-80	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-91	+0% $-28	+5% $34	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $18	base $-28	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $182,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $182,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $182,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $182,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $182,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $182,000 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,000 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,000 Active 210 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 209 DOM
17. 2025-11-03
    listed $182,000 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Manufactured Home- 5 Bedrooms on .60 acres near Lake Champlain. Located on a quiet dead-end lane with views of beautiful Lake Champlain. This spacious home offers comfort, privacy, and charm.Landscaped with flowers,shrubs,a small man-made pond(for goldfish)and a wooded backyard,circular driveway and attached garage, The interior consists of 5 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths(Spa Tub),spacious kitchen,dining area,living room with fireplace,family room laundry area, small pantry,workshop/hobby room and lots of storage.Appliances included.Enjoy the outdoors from the decks.Conveniently located near the bridge to VT,I-87 and close to all Adirondack recreations.

18. 1999-05-26
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$4/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$2,968
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$3,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Henry

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Henry, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,545

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 12% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 342.6175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1416.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Listed $182,000 Global MLS
• 1999-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,968 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.