The Shelby A Plan · Huntsville, AL 35773

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · SingleFamily · 464 Days on market

$25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shelby welcomes you into a modern, open space, complete with a formal dining room and study. The kitchen overlooks an open-concept family room. The second floor features a spacious master bedroom with a large walk-in closet and master bath along with two additional bedrooms with ample walk-in closets of their own. Make it your own with The Shelby's flexible floor plan! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Master bath
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• MASTER BATH
• TWO ADDITIONAL BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $339,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $394,565.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.8% in Huntsville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#3 in AL, #1,082 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Madison Cross Roads Elementary School (math 14% / reading 48%, grade F, #360 of 627 statewide, top 58%, 1,035 students, 59% FRL); Sparkman Middle School (math 18% / reading 53%, grade F, #81 of 257 statewide, top 33%, 859 students, 60% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,311 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.36%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,565
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -13.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Morning Dew Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,548 (+4%)	6mo	$305,000	$120	77
124 Barn Trail Way	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,422 (-1%)	10mo	$278,000	$115	75
183 Beaver Brook Pl	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,572 (+5%)	8mo	$359,000	$140	69
223 Bluebonnet St	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,634 (+7%)	5mo	$431,261	$164	56
112 Cotita Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,136 (-13%)	1mo	$370,006	$173	55
140 Ivy Vine Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,136 (-13%)	8mo	$320,000	$150	54
143 Ivy Vine Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,769 (+13%)	11mo	$389,000	$140	54
109 Magnolia Hill Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,191 (-11%)	2mo	$375,479	$171	53
194 Beaver Brook Pl	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,769 (+13%)	12mo	$369,900	$134	51
147 Ivy Vine Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,136 (-13%)	12mo	$345,000	$162	50
125 Ivy Vine Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,769 (+13%)	18mo	$379,900	$137	49
137 Ivy Vine Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,769 (+13%)	18mo	$374,900	$135	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $142,476
• Equity at exit: $355,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $476,644
• Equity at exit: $766,552

Cash invested: $110,478 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35773

• Home prices YoY: 28.8%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,069
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$493 /mo · $5,918/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,483

Max offer price $229,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-865	-5% $-1,001	+0% $-1,138	+5% $-1,274	+10% $-1,410
Rent	-10% $-1,299	-5% $-1,218	+0% $-1,138	+5% $-1,057	+10% $-976
Rate	-1.0pp $-939	-0.5pp $-1,037	base $-1,138	+0.5pp $-1,240	+1.0pp $-1,344

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,641
• Closing costs: $11,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Beaver Brook Pl Toney, AL	4.0	2.5	2448	$2,000	$0.82	45d	1	0.21mi
147 Ivy Vine Dr Toney, AL	4.0	3.0	2136	$2,100	$0.98	25d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,900 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 458 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,900 Active 456 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,900 Active 453 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 452 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 451 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,900 Active 450 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 442 DOM
15. 2025-03-21
    price $339,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Shelby welcomes you into a modern, open space, complete with a formal dining room and study. The kitchen overlooks an open-concept family room. The second floor features a spacious master bedroom with a large walk-in closet and master bath along with two additional bedrooms with ample walk-in closets of their own. Make it your own with The Shelby's flexible floor plan! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

16. 2025-03-14
    listed $344,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    The Shelby welcomes you into a modern, open space, complete with a formal dining room and study. The kitchen overlooks an open-concept family room. The second floor features a spacious master bedroom with a large walk-in closet and master bath along with two additional bedrooms with ample walk-in closets of their own. Make it your own with The Shelby's flexible floor plan! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,102
• − Property taxes: −$5,918
• − Insurance: −$1,973
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,478
• Taxable loss: −$21,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1082

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 220,435
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 149.14%
• Current HPI: 666.8602
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $339,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-14 Listed $344,900 Zillow