137 Shoups Branch Rd · Liberty, PA 16678

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

In the market for a sturdy, convenient starter home or low-cost living option? Interested in a & quot; lake house& quot; for less than some campsites? Check out this just-refreshed Commodore mobile home located right outside Saxton Borough in the clean and quiet Mountain Manor MHP, with easy access to Tussey Mountain High School, shopping and dining options in downtown Saxton, and endless outdoor recreation opportunities with Raystown Lake just minutes from your front door. Quiet country living in commuting distance from Altoona, Huntingdon, and Everett/Bedford. This home features a wrap-around kitchen with built-in dinette and an abundance of cabinets, a generous living room with p

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Off street parking
• Shed

Tags

• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• NEAR WEAVERS FALLS RECREATION
• EASY DISTANCE TO RAYSTOWN LAKE
• MOSTLY REMODELED
• OFF STREET PARKING
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Gravel driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); Residential mobile home; Metal roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No fireplace; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($830 rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 6.2% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#659 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tussey Mountain SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #412 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $812 appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.82%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $33,727
• Equity at exit: $12,967

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.29×
• Total profit: $77,767
• Equity at exit: $19,620

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16678

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $77/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $222

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $29,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $31,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $31,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $31,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $31,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $31,900 Active 1504-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $77 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $275 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 255.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$77
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$797
• − Management: −$797
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $5,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $4,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tussey Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4223970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6329
• State rank: #412 of 539 in PA

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #6444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,139
• Population (ZIP): 2,461

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Current HPI: 150.9539
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $29,900 HCBR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $77 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.