4252 Castille Ave · Pea Ridge, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +12.1/30.0
- ARV discount +9.9/15.0
- Schools +5.3/10.0
- DSCR +3.6/10.0
- 1% rule +3.5/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$250,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This 3br 2ba home is conveniently located off of Hwy 90 and is close to most of what the Pace/Milton area has to offer. This home is complete with tile flooring throughout, vaulted ceiling in living room, split bedroom floorplan, eat in kitchen and a large laundry room. There is a large 'bonus room' off of the kitchen that could be used as a family room, office or even a 4th bedroom (there is a closet). The backyard is fenced and there is a workshop/storage shed.
Key facts
- One story layout
- Detached shed
- 0.26 acre lot
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: No homeowners association
Exterior
- Parking: Open parking with a driveway
- Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Circuit breaker electrical service
- Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Approximately 1,592 square feet
- Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
- Exterior features: Interior lot; Paved, county-maintained road access; Public water
Interior
- Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater
- Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 14' x 14'
- Flooring: Tile
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
- Interior features: Bonus room; Double pane windows
- Laundry & utility: Circuit breaker electrical panel
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-639/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (15.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $212k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#459 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Bennett C Russell Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 819 students, 59% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $99k; list at $250k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.85% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.04%
- Cash-on-cash
- -0.91%
- DSCR
- 0.96
- GRM
- 9.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $264,272
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4285 Lindsey Ln | 0.12mi | 4/2.0 | 1,640 (+3%) | 2mo | $220,000 | $134 | 88 |
| 5483 Chantilly Cir | 0.37mi | 4/2.0 | 1,535 (-4%) | 4mo | $255,000 | $166 | 74 |
| 4331 Chantilly Way | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,544 (-3%) | 4mo | $253,000 | $164 | 65 |
| 4412 Copperwood Pl | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,442 (-9%) | 4mo | $305,000 | $212 | 64 |
| 4288 Chantilly Way | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,524 (-4%) | 3mo | $275,000 | $180 | 62 |
| 5301 E Avenida De Golf | 0.43mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,492 (-6%) | 4mo | $221,000 | $148 | 61 |
| 5270 Barcelona St | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,353 (-15%) | 4mo | $228,000 | $169 | 49 |
| 5247 Catalina St | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,430 (-10%) | 3mo | $251,000 | $176 | 48 |
| 4344 Chantilly Way | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,380 (-13%) | 2mo | $245,000 | $178 | 47 |
| 4460 Santa Villa Dr | 0.49mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,400 (-12%) | 4mo | $215,000 | $154 | 47 |
| 4327 Chantilly Way | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,385 (-13%) | 6mo | $210,000 | $152 | 47 |
| 4361 W Avenida De Golf | 0.49mi | 3/1.5 (-1) | 1,371 (-14%) | 3mo | $204,000 | $149 | 45 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -18.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.36×
- Total profit
- $-44,463
- Equity at exit
- $37,276
- IRR
- -10.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.35×
- Total profit
- $-45,382
- Equity at exit
- $21,615
Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32571
- Home prices YoY
- -17.7%
- Rents YoY
- 2.7%
- Active inventory
- 674
- Price-to-rent
- 9.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,120 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,311
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
- Insurance
- −$104
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$445
- Net cashflow
- $-53
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $120 | -5% $33 | +0% $-53 | +5% $-140 | +10% $-226 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-221 | -5% $-137 | +0% $-53 | +5% $31 | +10% $114 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $73 | -0.5pp $10 | base $-53 | +0.5pp $-118 | +1.0pp $-184 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $62,500
- Closing costs
- $7,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 15 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4530 Chantilly Way Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1629 | $1,750 | $1.07 | 25d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 4933 Bell Ridge Ln Milton, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 865 | $1,437 | $1.66 | 16d | 8 | 0.97mi |
| 5061 Peach Dr Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1581 | $1,850 | $1.17 | 25d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 4624 Malay Cir Milton, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1787 | $2,085 | $1.17 | 16d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 4836 Covenant Cir Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1590 | $1,875 | $1.18 | 16d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 5157 Peach Dr Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1788 | $2,100 | $1.17 | 16d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 4413 Oak Vista Ln Milton, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 992 | $2,354 | $2.37 | 16d | 18 | 1.34mi |
| 3984 Pendragon Cir Unit 1 Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1537 | $1,800 | $1.17 | 23d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 5320 Cornwall Dr Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1703 | $2,200 | $1.29 | 16d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 3863 Pendragon Cir , FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1579 | $2,500 | $1.58 | 25d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 4955 Red Cedar Rd Milton, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2077 | $2,400 | $1.16 | 16d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 4051 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1530 | $1,800 | $1.18 | 16d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 4067 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1537 | $1,800 | $1.17 | 16d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 4185 Pendragon Cir Unit Alisha walker Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1553 | $1,800 | $1.16 | 16d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 4167 Pendragon Cir Milton, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1553 | $1,800 | $1.16 | 16d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 27 events
-
2026-06-22days on market $250,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $250,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $250,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $250,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $250,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $250,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $250,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $250,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $250,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $250,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $250,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $250,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $250,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-02-06$250,000 Active
-
2024-01-07historical $875
-
2024-01-02price $875
-
2023-12-24$650
-
2010-07-23soldstatus $99,000 467-char remark
Show marketing remark (467 chars)
This 3br 2ba home is conveniently located off of Hwy 90 and is close to most of what the Pace/Milton area has to offer. This home is complete with tile flooring throughout, vaulted ceiling in living room, split bedroom floorplan, eat in kitchen and a large laundry room. There is a large 'bonus room' off of the kitchen that could be used as a family room, office or even a 4th bedroom (there is a closet). The backyard is fenced and there is a workshop/storage shed.
-
2010-04-20$94,500 467-char remark
Show marketing remark (467 chars)
This 3br 2ba home is conveniently located off of Hwy 90 and is close to most of what the Pace/Milton area has to offer. This home is complete with tile flooring throughout, vaulted ceiling in living room, split bedroom floorplan, eat in kitchen and a large laundry room. There is a large 'bonus room' off of the kitchen that could be used as a family room, office or even a 4th bedroom (there is a closet). The backyard is fenced and there is a workshop/storage shed.
-
2007-07-10soldstatus $99,000 326-char remark
Show marketing remark (326 chars)
HUD property sold as-is. Information from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information. Liens/Code violations may/may not exist. Broker/purchaser to resolve. Evidence of mold may/may not be present. No remediation has or will be done. FHA ELIGIBLE WITH $2200 REPAIR ESCROW HUD CASE - 091-367019
-
2007-04-13$107,000 326-char remark
Show marketing remark (326 chars)
HUD property sold as-is. Information from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information. Liens/Code violations may/may not exist. Broker/purchaser to resolve. Evidence of mold may/may not be present. No remediation has or will be done. FHA ELIGIBLE WITH $2200 REPAIR ESCROW HUD CASE - 091-367019
-
2003-01-28soldstatus $79,900
-
2001-06-06$78,900
-
2000-07-05soldstatus $17,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $25,435
- − Mortgage interest
- −$14,004
- − Property taxes
- −$3,750
- − Insurance
- −$1,250
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,035
- − Management
- −$2,035
- − Depreciation
- −$7,273
- Taxable loss
- −$4,911
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,179
- After-tax cash flow
- $540/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Santa Rosa
- NCES district ID
- 1201650
- Math proficiency
- 63% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 60% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,161
- Composite
- 53.12/100
- National rank
- #1511
- State rank
- #8 of 73 in FL
Livability — Pea Ridge
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #459
- US rank
- #8316
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Pea Ridge, FL
- County
- Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 42,171
- Household income
- $87,617
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 301.0
Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 195,978 people
- By 2030
- 209,782 · +7.0%
- By 2040
- 235,293 · +20.1%
- By 2050
- 256,408 · +30.8%
- By 2075
- 298,074 · +52.1%
- By 2100
- 303,216 · +54.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (80%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -62.39%
- Current HPI
- 290.2953
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.72%
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+1328.6% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-06 Listed $250,000 PARMLS
- 2024-01-07 Rental Removed $875 APPFOLIO
- 2024-01-02 Price Changed $875 APPFOLIO
- 2023-12-24 Listed for Rent $650 APPFOLIO
- 2010-07-23 Sold (MLS) $99,000 PARMLS
- 2010-04-20 Listed $94,500 PARMLS
- 2007-07-10 Sold (MLS) $99,000 PARMLS
- 2007-04-13 Listed $107,000 PARMLS
- 2003-01-28 Sold (MLS) $79,900 PARMLS
- 2001-06-06 Listed $78,900 PARMLS
- 2000-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.0%/yrLatest (2025): $151 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…