46653 Walkers Place #15 · Vermillion, SD 57010

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2021 $211/sqft · 14% below area Est $220k · 14% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you interested in a vacation rental where you can enjoy it for yourself and when not using it for yourself, you can Airbnb, VRBO, etc. ? Well, get a head start on enjoying the outdoors in this completely custom built and year-round home located on the Vermillion River. Just minutes from Vermillion, Burbank and Elk Point, the location at Walkers Place, just off of Saginaw Road is perfect! This home features a vaulted ceiling, electric fireplace, beautiful kitchen with new appliances with a single detached garage with electric opener and extra storage. Electrical outlets have been installed if the future owners would like to install a loft for more sleeping area. Yearly HOA, which includes the lot rent, is currently $2000/year as this home is lived in year-round (or $5500 in HOA/year if using it also as a rental). Beautiful setting along the Vermillion River, this property is a true gem!

Key facts

• Vermillion river
• Beautiful kitchen
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT HOME
• VERMILLION RIVER
• VAULTED CEILING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (48.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (55.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in SD, #757 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Vermillion School District 13-1 (town): math 44% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #27 of 59 in SD (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,493 (55.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.38%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,115
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -13.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $23,972
• Equity at exit: $129,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $100,254
• Equity at exit: $244,665

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57010

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $97,731

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 904-char remark

   Show marketing remark (904 chars)

   Are you interested in a vacation rental where you can enjoy it for yourself and when not using it for yourself, you can Airbnb, VRBO, etc. ? Well, get a head start on enjoying the outdoors in this completely custom built and year-round home located on the Vermillion River. Just minutes from Vermillion, Burbank and Elk Point, the location at Walkers Place, just off of Saginaw Road is perfect! This home features a vaulted ceiling, electric fireplace, beautiful kitchen with new appliances with a single detached garage with electric opener and extra storage. Electrical outlets have been installed if the future owners would like to install a loft for more sleeping area. Yearly HOA, which includes the lot rent, is currently $2000/year as this home is lived in year-round (or $5500 in HOA/year if using it also as a rental). Beautiful setting along the Vermillion River, this property is a true gem!

2. 2026-02-17
   listed $189,900 Active 904-char remark

   Show marketing remark (904 chars)

   Are you interested in a vacation rental where you can enjoy it for yourself and when not using it for yourself, you can Airbnb, VRBO, etc. ? Well, get a head start on enjoying the outdoors in this completely custom built and year-round home located on the Vermillion River. Just minutes from Vermillion, Burbank and Elk Point, the location at Walkers Place, just off of Saginaw Road is perfect! This home features a vaulted ceiling, electric fireplace, beautiful kitchen with new appliances with a single detached garage with electric opener and extra storage. Electrical outlets have been installed if the future owners would like to install a loft for more sleeping area. Yearly HOA, which includes the lot rent, is currently $2000/year as this home is lived in year-round (or $5500 in HOA/year if using it also as a rental). Beautiful setting along the Vermillion River, this property is a true gem!

3. 2025-08-25
   listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$11,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermillion School District 13-1
• NCES district ID: 4674370
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,421
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2995
• State rank: #27 of 59 in SD

Livability — Vermillion

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #757

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,091
• Population (ZIP): 613

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,009 people
• By 2030: 15,554 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 15,862 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 16,801 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 20,880 · +39.1%
• By 2100: 27,360 · +82.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.5) · D 52.0% · R 45.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 24.2pp · 2024: 6.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.5 2020: D+11.0 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+15.5 2008: D+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.85%
• Current HPI: 221.7835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NWIA
• 2026-02-17 Listed $189,900 NWIA
• 2025-08-25 Listed $239,000 NWIA