3455 Mcguire Dr · Richmond, VA 23224

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1950 9,112 sqft lot $170/sqft · 7% below area Est $242k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Special! Needs to be completely renovated. Has 3 bedrooms and an additional room on the first floor, which could be a 4th bedroom. There is a full bath downstairs and one upstairs.

Key facts

• 9,112 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elizabeth D. Redd Elementary (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,108 of 1,108 statewide, top 100%, 392 students, 96% FRL); Thomas C. Boushall Middle (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #340 of 342 statewide, top 99%, 611 students, 98% FRL); George Wythe High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 319 statewide, top 100%, 1,309 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 74% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Richmond City Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $225k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,389 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,370
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -7.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3028 Laurelbrook Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+4%)	2mo	$299,950	$219	71
3112 Lost Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,229 (-7%)	6mo	$220,000	$179	65
3601 Decatur St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+8%)	6mo	$255,000	$179	61
1655 Hopkins Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-12%)	3mo	$295,000	$254	60
1411 Hopkins Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-10%)	1mo	$210,000	$176	60
801 Bedrock Ln	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-3%)	8mo	$260,000	$203	59
1420 Talbert Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,504 (+14%)	4mo	$264,950	$176	58
3017 Hiden Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-6%)	2mo	$256,750	$207	55
3313 Decatur St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,453 (+10%)	2mo	$360,000	$248	52
1109 Evergreen Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,503 (+14%)	3mo	$185,000	$123	43
207 E 37th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+12%)	7mo	$330,000	$222	38
3075 Stockton St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,133 (-14%)	4mo	$269,000	$237	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,498
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,479
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23224

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,560/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $217,040

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $19	+0% $-45	+5% $-109	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-116	+0% $-45	+5% $26	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $12	base $-45	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3314 Decatur St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.5	1640	$1,800	$1.10	45d	1	0.45mi
3154 Stockton St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1169	$1,600	$1.37	45d	1	0.48mi
2143 S Kinsley Ave Richmond, VA	4.0	1.0	1297	$1,550	$1.20	45d	1	0.84mi
3300 Midlothian Tpke Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,800	$1.61	6d	1	0.86mi
100 Mardick Rd Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	1254	$2,250	$1.79	25d	1	0.91mi
1100 Richmond Hwy Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,345	$2.21	3d	16	1.01mi
1200 Southwood Pkwy Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,605	$1.75	45d	11	1.05mi
10 W 27th St Unit P P Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	45d	1	1.08mi
216 Brandon Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1237	$1,800	$1.46	25d	1	1.09mi
800 Richmond Hwy Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	778	$2,044	$2.63	45d	1	1.15mi
1410 Enfield Ave Unit 1410 Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	45d	1	1.17mi
3309 Delano St Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	45d	1	1.18mi
152 Brandon Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1237	$2,109	$1.70	25d	1	1.18mi
4904 Warwick Rd Unit 4705 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	1.22mi
2522 Porter St Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1390	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.29mi
2200 Ingram Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$1,668	$2.35	6d	1	1.32mi
2208 Keswick Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	916	$1,775	$1.94	22d	1	1.35mi
2010 Maury St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	883	$1,675	$1.90	6d	1	1.37mi
2708 Semmes Ave Unit A Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,275	$1.21	45d	1	1.38mi
1913 Dinwiddie Ave Unit 1546196P Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1044	$2,519	$2.41	16d	1	1.40mi
1305 Chambers St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	966	$1,100	$1.14	25d	1	1.42mi
1840 Powell Rd Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,695	$1.38	18d	1	1.44mi
1808 Edwards Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-03-11
   listed $225,000 Active 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   Investors Special! Needs to be completely renovated. Has 3 bedrooms and an additional room on the first floor, which could be a 4th bedroom. There is a full bath downstairs and one upstairs.

10. 1994-11-28
    soldstatus $49,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,560 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,560
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,068
• After-tax cash flow: $527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103240
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,276
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5564
• State rank: #123 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, VA
• County: Richmond City · 178,280 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 40,575
• Household income: $50,475
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3584.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,263 people
• By 2030: 284,503 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 327,353 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 367,946 · +40.3%
• By 2075: 449,560 · +71.4%
• By 2100: 500,301 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% White 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+66.3) · D 82.0% · R 15.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 59.1pp · 2024: 66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+66.3 2020: D+68.0 2016: D+63.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.99%
• Current HPI: 336.9345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+350.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 1994-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $49,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,560 · -14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.