11373 Brae Way · Connerton, FL 33525

$327,800

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $155/sqft · at area comps Est $344k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner's suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $328k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-822/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,781/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,080 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,492
• List price: $327,800
• Delta: -4.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11713 Brae Way	0.07mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	14mo	$332,050	$157	85
11592 Brae Way	0.19mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	11mo	$329,400	$156	82
11709 Noble Blossom Loop	0.04mi	5/2.5	2,326 (+10%)	2mo	$339,400	$146	80
11737 Noble Blossom Loop	0.07mi	5/2.5	2,326 (+10%)	2mo	$350,800	$151	78
12115 Brae Way	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (+3%)	2mo	$361,000	$166	71
11721 Brae Way	0.07mi	5/2.5	2,326 (+10%)	13mo	$337,300	$145	69
11689 Brae Way	0.10mi	5/2.5	2,326 (+10%)	13mo	$318,900	$137	68
11673 Brae Way	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-11%)	13mo	$303,900	$162	60
11662 Brae Way	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-11%)	13mo	$319,000	$170	59
11119 Brae Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	5mo	$315,900	$173	55
12004 Brae Way	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	13mo	$329,900	$181	49
12038 Brae Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	12mo	$305,150	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,384
• Equity at exit: $48,876

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-55,188
• Equity at exit: $28,342

Cash invested: $91,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active
• Months of supply: 99.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $343,975 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,917/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $317,885

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $45	+0% $-69	+5% $-182	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-178	+0% $-69	+5% $41	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $15	base $-69	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,950
• Closing costs: $9,834
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11357 Brae Way Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,550	$1.04	95d	1	0.02mi
11708 Noble Blossom Loop Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,600	$1.06	63d	1	0.05mi
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	120d	1	0.06mi
11709 Noble Blossom Loop Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,650	$1.14	44d	1	0.06mi
11737 Noble Blossom Loop Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,650	$1.14	62d	1	0.09mi
11938 Brae Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,400	$1.32	44d	1	0.14mi
11522 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	10d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $327,800 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $327,700 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $327,700 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $328,150 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $328,150 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,362
• − Property taxes: −$4,917
• − Insurance: −$1,639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,670
• − Management: −$2,670
• − Depreciation: −$9,536
• Taxable loss: −$6,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,542
• After-tax cash flow: $719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained two-story home features an open-concept layout and modern finishes, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Antonio Elementary School D+ FL #1,055/2,144 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Pasco Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B