323 Comford St · Ray, ND 58849

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured

Built 1978 0.45 ac lot Est $125k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#205 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Nesson 2 (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #139 of 169 in ND (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #102 of 236 statewide, top 49%, 306 students, 16% FRL); Ray High School (math 50% / reading 30%, grade F, #51 of 144 statewide, top 38%, 121 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Nesson 2 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Williams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Williams County population projected at +158% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.72%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,992
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Comford St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$93	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,937
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $96,412
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58849

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $348	+0% $313	+5% $277	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $259	+0% $313	+5% $366	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $345	base $313	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $125,000
2. 2026-04-22
   historical
3. 2010-02-05
   soldstatus $47,500
4. 2009-03-05
   soldstatus
5. 2008-08-25
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$601/yr (+$50/mo · 96.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nesson 2
• NCES district ID: 3813710
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,689
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #11600
• State rank: #139 of 169 in ND

Livability — Ray

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #14327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ray, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,119

Population outlook (Williams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,696 people
• By 2030: 84,935 · +27.3%
• By 2040: 125,867 · +88.7%
• By 2050: 171,987 · +157.9%
• By 2075: 303,258 · +354.7%
• By 2100: 433,528 · +550.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 38% Scottish 11% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Williams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.1) · D 15.2% · R 83.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -68.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.1 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+50.0 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Delisted — GNMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $125,000 GNMLS
• 2010-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2009-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $624 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.