261 Hermosa Cir · Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $180k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rancho Cabeza, a desirable 55+ community in Santa Rosa. This well-maintained 2004 manufactured home offers approximately 1,000 sq. ft. with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Recent updates include vinyl plank flooring, a newer roof, and furnace (all approximately 4 years old). The open floor plan features a bright kitchen, dining area, indoor laundry, and a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and private bath. Enjoy a covered porch, strawberry patch, fruit garden, covered parking, and storage. Conveniently located across from the clubhouse, pool, and guest parking, with easy access to shopping, dining, medical facilities, and Highway 101. Buyer must obtain park approval. Space

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Small fruit garden
• Covered parking

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED PORCH
• STRAWBERRY PATCH
• SMALL FRUIT GARDEN
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $804; No land lease (property indicates not land-lease owned)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Park name: Rancho Cabeza

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Guest parking available; 2 parking spaces total
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Faces west
• Construction: Shingle roof; Wood skirt; Manufactured home make: Silvercrest; Manufacturer: Delaware Western Homes Corp
• Exterior features: Porch with steps; Carport awning; Shed(s) on property; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Skylights in living/family area; Laminate countertops; Dining and living area combined; Unfurnished; Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Double-strapped water heater; Green energy-efficient appliances, cooling, heating, water heater and windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sequoia Elementary (406 students, 17% FRL); Rincon Valley Middle (786 students, 28% FRL); Maria Carrillo High (1,591 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.81%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,000
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Hermosa Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	960 (-4%)	13mo	$154,000	$160	80
61 Coronado Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+6%)	6mo	$149,500	$141	80
29 Coronado Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	7mo	$145,000	$134	77
245 Hermosa Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,022 (+2%)	22mo	$230,000	$225	70
34 Springhill Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	12mo	$265,000	$240	63
72 Oakcreek Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	900 (-10%)	14mo	$237,000	$263	63
220 Hermosa Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0	860 (-14%)	19mo	$155,000	$180	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,817
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $73,225
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95409

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $785	+0% $726	+5% $666	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $628	+0% $726	+5% $824	+10% $923
Rate	-1.0pp $832	-0.5pp $779	base $726	+0.5pp $672	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5145 Parkhurst Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,469	$3.29	15d	1	0.09mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 02 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,450	$2.58	23d	1	0.80mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 49 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,999	$2.67	25d	1	0.80mi
42 Redwood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,700	$2.32	15d	1	0.81mi
174 S Boas Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,755	$3.53	15d	6	0.90mi
6401 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,975	$2.37	15d	1	1.03mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	25d	1	1.09mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Unit 05 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	15d	1	1.09mi
6233 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	15d	1	1.10mi
6221 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,145	$2.86	15d	3	1.12mi
6123 Montecito Blvd Unit rh6123Montecito14 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	23d	1	1.17mi
4656 Quigg Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,680	$2.82	15d	9	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 156.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $5,548
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $7,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,616
• Household income: $107,867
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -750.32%
• Current HPI: 226.8795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $210,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.