Is Wagner Plan in Panama City, FL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-512/mo modeled cash flow at a $249,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Wagner Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,828/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.17

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.2/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.8/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$249,990

Wagner Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Single-story living
Walk-in closet
En-suite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-512 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (16.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $183k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1365 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,790 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.12%
Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $283,002
List price: $249,990
Delta: -11.67%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 Wall St Unit HS 103	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	0mo	$238,350	$169	90
3816 Wall Street St Unit HS 96	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,413 (0%)	1mo	$247,990	$176	88
3804 Wall St Unit HS 99	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	1mo	$234,490	$182	75
3813 Wall Street St Unit HS 104	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	3mo	$238,000	$184	74
3832 Wall Street St Unit HS 91	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	5mo	$273,515	$212	72
3820 Wall Street St Unit HS 95	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	5mo	$270,900	$210	72
3821 Wall St Unit HS 106	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	71
3805 Wall St #102	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	2mo	$259,000	$165	70
3852 Wall Street St Unit HS 87	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	6mo	$262,375	$203	70
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	5mo	$266,990	$170	68
3844 Wall St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	6mo	$279,900	$178	67
3687 Basal St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+8%)	1mo	$313,277	$205	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.9%
Equity multiple: -0.03×
Total profit: $-81,817
Equity at exit: $42,197

10-year hold

IRR: -48.6%
Equity multiple: -0.60×
Total profit: $-126,512
Equity at exit: $24,469

Cash invested: $79,241 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 44 active · 36 under contract
Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $269,990 ($178/sqft)
Median days on market: 40 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +12.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

Home prices YoY: -16.1%
Rents YoY: 1.1%
Active inventory: 1365
Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,828 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,245/yr
Insurance: −$118
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
Net cashflow: $-512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,476

Max offer price $208,955

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-316	-5% $-414	+0% $-512	+5% $-610	+10% $-707
Rent	-10% $-656	-5% $-584	+0% $-512	+5% $-440	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-369	-0.5pp $-440	base $-512	+0.5pp $-585	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $70,751
Closing costs: $8,490
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	108d	1	0.68mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	116d	1	0.78mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	108d	1	0.79mi
2742 Largo Ave Apt B Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,350	$1.30	6d	1	0.86mi
4415 Conifer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	0.86mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	108d	1	0.93mi
2699 Largo Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	6d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	116d	1	0.94mi
3513 Mill Point Cv Callaway, FL	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,050	$1.41	6d	1	0.96mi
3516 Mill Point Cv Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	6d	1	0.97mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	116d	1	0.97mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	108d	1	1.02mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	108d	1	1.07mi
4007 Pioneer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,200	$1.23	6d	1	1.25mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	116d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	6d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	116d	1	1.31mi
3326 Ten Acre Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	6d	1	1.37mi
2914 Ormond Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,195	$1.23	6d	1	1.39mi
2910 Ormond Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,195	$1.23	6d	1	1.39mi
2916 Sequoia Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,295	$1.38	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $249,990 Active 219 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $249,990 Active 218 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $249,990 Active 216 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $249,990 Active 215 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $249,990 Active 214 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $249,990 Active 213 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $249,990 Active 212 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $249,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $249,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $249,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $249,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $249,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $249,990 Active 201 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $249,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $249,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $249,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-08-28

pricedays on market $249,990 Active 193 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $259,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $259,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $259,990 Active 190 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $259,990 Active 189 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $259,990 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $259,990 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $259,990 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $259,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $259,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $259,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $259,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $259,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $259,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $259,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $259,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $259,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $259,990 Active 176 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $259,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $259,990 Active 174 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $259,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $259,990 Active 172 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $259,990 Active 171 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $259,990 Active 170 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $259,990 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $259,990 Active 168 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $259,990 Active 165 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $259,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $259,990 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $259,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $259,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $259,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $259,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $259,990 Active 155 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,935
− Mortgage interest: −$15,853
− Property taxes: −$4,245
− Insurance: −$1,415
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
− Management: −$1,755
− Depreciation: −$8,233
Taxable loss: −$11,320

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,717
After-tax cash flow: $-3,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,065–$21,195 screening

This single-story home offers a modern and well-maintained living space with a good condition score. It is ready for a new owner or renter with minor touch-ups and updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Replace window screens — New screens improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look. ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary School F FL #2,115/2,144 Nat'l #34,815/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Bay
NCES district ID: 1200090
Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $47,740
Composite: 43.41/100
National rank: #3014
State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

Score: 72/100
State rank: #350
US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bay County · 206,264 people
City population: 91,445
Metro: Panama City, FL
Population (ZIP): 42,514
Household income: $74,708
Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 206,264 people
By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
Current HPI: 263.7178
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
Metro: Panama City, FL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Technology	2	$29B
#159 Carrier Global Palm Beach Gardens $22.2B #376 Roper Technologies Sarasota $6.8B
Insurance	2	$17B
#348 Fidelity National Financial Jacksonville $12.1B #494 Brown & Brown Daytona Beach $4.6B
Retail	1	$60B
#71 Publix Super Markets Lakeland $60.2B
Technology Distribution	1	$58B
#73 TD Synnex Clearwater $58.5B
Homebuilding	1	$35B
#185 Lennar Miami $35.4B
Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B
#122 Jabil St. Petersburg $34.7B

Price history

+5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-02-19 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
2026-02-18 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
2026-02-16 Listed $269,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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