Wagner Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living, ideal for modern lifestyles. Two bedrooms are located near the front of the home surrounding a full bathroom, adjacent to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A luxurious owner's suite provides a serene retreat at the back of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,708.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1200 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,417 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,708
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3942 Lombard St #9	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	6mo	$249,990	$170	84
3934 Lombard St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	8mo	$249,990	$170	83
3934 Lombard St Unit Homesite 11	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+4%)	8mo	$249,990	$170	83
3813 Wall Street St Unit HS 104	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	1mo	$238,000	$184	75
3832 Wall Street St Unit HS 91	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	4mo	$273,515	$212	73
3820 Wall Street St Unit HS 95	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	4mo	$270,900	$210	73
3805 Wall St #102	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	0mo	$259,000	$165	72
3852 Wall Street St Unit HS 87	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-9%)	5mo	$262,375	$203	72
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	3mo	$266,990	$170	69
3844 Wall St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+11%)	4mo	$279,900	$178	68
105 Aleczander Preserve Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+10%)	7mo	$300,000	$194	50
3637 E Baldwin Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-11%)	16mo	$215,000	$171	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,146
• Equity at exit: $41,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-124,004
• Equity at exit: $23,925

Cash invested: $77,478 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $270,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1200
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,421

Max offer price $203,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-312	-5% $-407	+0% $-503	+5% $-598	+10% $-694
Rent	-10% $-644	-5% $-573	+0% $-503	+5% $-432	+10% $-362
Rate	-1.0pp $-363	-0.5pp $-432	base $-503	+0.5pp $-574	+1.0pp $-647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,177
• Closing costs: $8,301
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	62d	1	0.68mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	70d	1	0.78mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	62d	1	0.79mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	62d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	70d	1	0.94mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	70d	1	0.97mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	62d	1	1.02mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	62d	1	1.07mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	70d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	62d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	70d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $259,990 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $259,990 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $259,990 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $259,990 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $259,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $259,990 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $259,990 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $259,990 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $259,990 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $259,990 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,990 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,990 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $259,990 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,990 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,990 Active 148 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 147 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $259,990 Active 146 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,990 Active 145 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 144 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 143 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $259,990 Active 142 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,990 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,990 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $259,990 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $259,990 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,990 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,990 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,990 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $259,990 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $259,990 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $259,990 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $259,990 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $259,990 Active 123 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,990 Active 122 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,990 Active 121 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 120 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,990 Active 119 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $259,990 Active 117 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 116 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 114 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,990 Active 112 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,500
• − Property taxes: −$4,151
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$8,050
• Taxable loss: −$11,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,065–$21,195 screening

This single-story home offers a modern and well-maintained living space with a good condition score. It is ready for a new owner or renter with minor touch-ups and updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace window screens — New screens improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Grove Elementary School F FL #2,115/2,144 Nat'l #34,815/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $269,990 Zillow