20738 2nd St · McKenney, VA 23872

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1965 7,204 sqft lot Est $282k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

NEW IMPROVED PRICE!!! NEW HVAC! NEW HOT WATER HEATER! NEW VINYL WINDOWS! NEW STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,400 sq ft of living space in the heart of McKenney, Virginia, blending small-town charm with modern convenience. In a community where church bells still ring, neighbors' wave, and local shops greet you by name, McKenney is rich in history and warmth with tree-lined streets, seasonal festivals, and a timeless appeal. Just two minutes from I-85, the home provides a quick commute to Petersburg, Fort Lee, Blackstone, Fort Pickett, Sussex, Stony Creek, South Hill, Lawrenceville, Chesterfield, and Richmond (about 50 minutes away) wi

Key facts

• 7,204 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#441 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $225k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.40%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,170
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10518 Doyle Blvd	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (+3%)	17mo	$100,000	$70	66
10325 Doyle Blvd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-14%)	6mo	$289,000	$243	56
10228 Doyle Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+14%)	6mo	$322,000	$203	48
10211 Doyle Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+14%)	12mo	$322,000	$203	40
10719 Zehmer Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	23mo	$225,000	$188	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $160,575
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $442,712
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23872

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $662	+0% $599	+5% $535	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $404	-5% $501	+0% $599	+5% $696	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $656	base $599	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   status Active
3. 2026-02-18
   price $225,000
4. 2025-11-07
   price $249,000
5. 2025-11-02
   status Active
6. 2025-10-18
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-07
   price $260,000
8. 2025-09-24
   listed $275,000 Active
9. 2006-09-26
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 100.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $3,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$882
• After-tax cash flow: $6,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — McKenney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKenney, VA
• City population: 2,511
• Population (ZIP): 2,511

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 35% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 80.66%
• Current HPI: 295.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+221.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $249,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-02 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $260,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $275,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $922 · +62.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.