9122 Sheldon West Dr · Westchase, FL 33626

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1986 5,531 sqft lot $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO FLOOD ZONE. NO LOT RENT-YOU OWN THE LAND AND YOUR HOME-LOW HOA. This home is in the sought-after Sheldon West Community known for its location near Westchase and Citrus Park area. It is a 55+, pet and golf cart friendly well-maintained park and it is a short walk to the Community Pool and the Club House. This home is offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and has an indoor laundry room for your convenience. You will find many upgrades including: Roof 2025, water heater 2021. The A/C 2014, plumbing upgrade 2019. All appliances are in good working order. The open Living room with a fire place, dining room, kitchen, front porch and a large Florida Room make an awesome place to entertain your f

Key facts

• No lot rent
• Roof 2025
• A/c 2014

Tags

• NO FLOOD ZONE
• NO LOT RENT
• LOW HOA
• ROOF 2025
• WATER HEATER 2021
• A/C 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,592 sq ft; Building area total reported as 3,182 sq ft; Total acreage less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Vanguard Home Owner Association with required approval; Monthly HOA approximately $81.67 (quarterly fee $245); Association fee includes pool; Community allows golf carts; Pool on-site; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story (one level); Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Sliding doors; Storage; Corner lot; Paved lot; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Wood-burning fireplace; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $169k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.74%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $38,832
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $97,253
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33626

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $1,173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9646 Lake Chase Island Way Unit 9646 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	0.24mi
9020 Lake Chase Island Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,395	$1.52	24d	1	0.25mi
8801 Citrus Village Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,515	$2.20	2d	36	0.26mi
9210 Fox Sparrow Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,975	$1.54	14d	1	0.28mi
11617 Crowned Sparrow Ln Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,600	$1.64	24d	1	0.31mi
11451 Crowned Sparrow Ln Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,799	$1.45	24d	1	0.38mi
9412 Lake Chase Island Way #9412 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,750	$1.74	15d	1	0.46mi
12011 Citrus Falls Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,353	$2.43	3d	27	0.69mi
9105 Crystal Commons Way Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2125	$3,675	$1.73	24d	1	0.77mi
10506 Chelmsford Way Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2162	$4,700	$2.17	5d	1	0.86mi
8741 Exposition Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,450	$1.79	3d	1	0.93mi
8735 Exposition Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,699	$2.16	18d	1	0.94mi
9506 Cavendish Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$3,295	$2.13	24d	1	0.95mi
8321 Praise Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$4,500	$2.20	18d	1	0.99mi
9508 W Park Village Dr #107 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,475	$1.94	24d	1	1.02mi
8820 Thomas Oaks Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$2,675	$2.56	2d	22	1.06mi
8748 Hampden Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,700	$1.52	24d	1	1.11mi
9874 Montague St Unit 1475279P Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$4,126	$3.07	2d	1	1.11mi
9902 Brompton Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1303	$2,670	$2.05	3d	38	1.21mi
8517 Fawn Creek Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,550	$1.65	24d	1	1.30mi
8613 Fawn Creek Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,600	$1.45	22d	1	1.34mi
8134 Colonial Village Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$2,385	$2.14	2d	12	1.37mi
8636 Manassas Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,550	$1.64	24d	1	1.44mi
9010 Dacena Villa Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$2,200	$1.83	24d	1	1.49mi
9015 Sheldon Chase Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,500	$1.66	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $169,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    status $181,000 Pending 36 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $181,000 Active 1260-char remark
15. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus $85,000
16. 2004-09-30
    soldstatus $85,000
17. 2004-08-23
    listed $85,000
18. 1994-06-27
    soldstatus $35,000
19. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $14,400
20. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $11,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 54.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,778
• − Management: −$2,778
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $12,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,894
• After-tax cash flow: $11,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Westchase

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #5558

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westchase, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 30,575
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,575
• Household income: $127,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.80%
• Current HPI: 241.882
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1356.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $181,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-23 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,400 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $910 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.