6639 Tony Roy Rd · Mansura, LA 71350

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot Est $111k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this opportunity to add this investment property to your portfolio. This home features wood burning fireplace, 30x20 shed/workshop, and central ac and heat.

Key facts

• Central ac and heat
• 30x20 shed
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 30X20 SHED
• CENTRAL AC AND HEAT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Acreage

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Propane
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Composition roof; Workshop on the property; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#256 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A-, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Avoyelles Parish (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #56 of 98 in LA (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Avoyelles Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Avoyelles County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.37%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,768
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6617 Nothofer St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,087 (-10%)	0mo	$99,900	$92	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $33,963
• Equity at exit: $28,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $84,185
• Equity at exit: $44,338

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71350

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $492

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $65,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $70,000 Active
19. 2020-08-29
    listed $100,000
20. 2013-04-11
    listed $41,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $358 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$996
• After-tax cash flow: $3,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avoyelles Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200150
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $33,891
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8378
• State rank: #56 of 98 in LA

Livability — Mansura

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #19103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansura, LA
• Population (ZIP): 4,556

Population outlook (Avoyelles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,084 people
• By 2030: 37,784 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 35,049 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 32,225 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 25,695 · -34.3%
• By 2100: 18,985 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 25% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Avoyelles

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 27.8% · R 71.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.1pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+40.8 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+23.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.92%
• Current HPI: 94.876
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+67.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $70,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-08-29 Listed $100,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-04-11 Listed $41,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.