3019 Upton Ave N · Minneapolis, MN 55411

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,027 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1905 5,227 sqft lot $117/sqft · 51% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor or value-add opportunity. This 3BR/1BA home was previously a rental and is being sold as-is, with buyer to assume all TISH repairs. Priced to reflect condition, offering great potential to update, renovate, or build equity.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.69%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,456
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -50.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3020 Queen Ave N	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	956 (-7%)	15mo	$150,000	$157	58
2806 Penn Ave N	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+5%)	13mo	$214,500	$199	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $25,834
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $107,638
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55411

• Home prices YoY: -8.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,206/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $613	+0% $579	+5% $545	+10% $511
Rent	-10% $435	-5% $507	+0% $579	+5% $651	+10% $723
Rate	-1.0pp $640	-0.5pp $610	base $579	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2947 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,950	$1.76	0d	1	0.51mi
2947 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,950	$1.76	14d	1	0.51mi
2323 26th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	807	$1,717	$2.13	15d	3	0.51mi
3114 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1362	$2,000	$1.47	15d	1	0.53mi
2356 N Thomas Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	44d	1	0.55mi
3255 N Logan Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	18d	1	0.60mi
3315 James Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	4d	1	0.73mi
2211 Queen Ave N Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	983	$1,695	$1.72	18d	1	0.74mi
2600 France Ave N Unit 2600 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,599	$1.45	5d	1	0.77mi
2324 Logan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.80mi
3419 Grimes Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,050	$1.58	44d	1	0.83mi
2000 W Broadway Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	8d	4	0.85mi
2703 Humboldt Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	22d	1	0.86mi
3105 N Girard Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	25d	1	0.88mi
2411 Golden Valley Rd Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,395	$2.00	15d	1	0.94mi
1816 Zephyr Pl Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,050	$1.83	44d	1	0.95mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	22d	1	1.02mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	4d	1	1.02mi
3711 W Broadway Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$1,149	$1.70	25d	1	1.02mi
1523 22nd Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	943	$1,695	$1.80	15d	1	1.03mi
1649 Russell Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1011	$1,700	$1.68	0d	1	1.08mi
1649 Russell Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1011	$1,700	$1.68	20d	1	1.08mi
2620 Emerson Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	877	$1,900	$2.17	0d	1	1.09mi
3737 Hubbard Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	17d	1	1.16mi
3737 Hubbard Ave N Unit 3737-204 Robbinsdale, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	5d	1	1.16mi
2900 N Colfax Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,345	$1.12	25d	1	1.16mi
4024 37th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	5d	2	1.16mi
4024 37th Ave N Unit 4024-204 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	4d	1	1.16mi
4028 37th Ave N Unit 4028-202 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	17d	1	1.16mi
3753 Girard Ave N Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,450	$2.11	18d	8	1.18mi
4036 37th Ave N Robbinsdale, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	1.22mi
1315 N Dowling Ave Unit 308 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	22d	1	1.22mi
4032 37th Ave N Unit 4032-201 Robbinsdale, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	25d	1	1.22mi
1315 N Dowling Ave Unit 304 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	4d	1	1.22mi
2124 Fremont Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	2d	1	1.22mi
1507 N Newton Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1068	$1,499	$1.40	44d	1	1.29mi
3211 N 6th St Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	25d	1	1.38mi
1429 Knox Ave N Unit 1429 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1260	$1,995	$1.58	44d	1	1.39mi
1239 Sheridan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	795	$1,250	$1.57	4d	4	1.44mi
2419 Plymouth Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0	836	$1,795	$2.15	4d	2	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $130,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Investor or value-add opportunity. This 3BR/1BA home was previously a rental and is being sold as-is, with buyer to assume all TISH repairs. Priced to reflect condition, offering great potential to update, renovate, or build equity.

15. 2026-04-04
    status Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Investor or value-add opportunity. This 3BR/1BA home was previously a rental and is being sold as-is, with buyer to assume all TISH repairs. Priced to reflect condition, offering great potential to update, renovate, or build equity.

16. 2026-04-03
    historical Contingent - Inspection 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Investor or value-add opportunity. This 3BR/1BA home was previously a rental and is being sold as-is, with buyer to assume all TISH repairs. Priced to reflect condition, offering great potential to update, renovate, or build equity.

17. 2026-03-18
    listed $140,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Investor or value-add opportunity. This 3BR/1BA home was previously a rental and is being sold as-is, with buyer to assume all TISH repairs. Priced to reflect condition, offering great potential to update, renovate, or build equity.

18. 2007-08-09
    historical
19. 2007-07-02
    listed $58,500
20. 2007-06-24
    historical
21. 2007-01-24
    listed $62,532
22. 2006-11-29
    historical
23. 2006-05-29
    listed $149,900
24. 2000-03-20
    soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,206 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,206
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $5,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,741
• Household income: $60,225
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1826.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.91%
• Current HPI: 356.6758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.35%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+44.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $140,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-02 Listed $58,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-24 Listed $62,532 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-29 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,206 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.