401 Moonlight Graham Blvd · Ward, AR 72176

$203,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,489 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot Est $211k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Hardie siding
• Granite countertops
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDIE SIDING
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate living area: 1,489 (source: plans & specs)
• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, Conventional, or Cash; Annual special improvement tax applies
• HOA & community: Annual homeowners association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service
• Home design: New construction; Property type not specified; Stories not specified; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Hardie Board siding; Architectural shingle roof; Paved road access; Lot in a subdivision; Approximately 50x120 lot (0.14 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Smoke detectors; Granite slab kitchen countertops; Sheetrock walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $203k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,497 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,438
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
460 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,489 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$134	99
500 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,489 (0%)	4mo	$211,000	$142	97
391 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	81
341 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	81
10 Mill Creek Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-10%)	1mo	$205,000	$152	67
420 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	1mo	$215,000	$136	63
450 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	3mo	$200,000	$126	60
490 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+6%)	2mo	$204,000	$129	60
22 Magnolia Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-5%)	2mo	$212,000	$151	57
11 Birchwood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-8%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	53
24 Magnolia Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,414 (-5%)	2mo	$215,000	$152	51
846 Sweetwater Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,740
• Equity at exit: $119,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $119,462
• Equity at exit: $209,859

Cash invested: $56,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$254 /mo · $3,045/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,807

Max offer price $168,422

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-169	+0% $-239	+5% $-309	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-298	+0% $-239	+5% $-180	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-187	base $-239	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,750
• Closing costs: $6,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.36mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.52mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.74mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.85mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	21d	1	0.85mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	0.86mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.34mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	46d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $203,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $203,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $203,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $203,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $203,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $203,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $203,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $203,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $203,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $203,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $203,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $203,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $203,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $203,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $203,000
18. 2026-04-18
    price $203,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

19. 2026-04-11
    price $214,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

20. 2026-04-10
    price $211,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

21. 2026-04-07
    price $214,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

22. 2026-03-15
    price $211,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

23. 2026-03-06
    price $214,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

24. 2026-02-22
    price $211,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

25. 2026-02-15
    listed $214,000 New Listing
26. 2026-01-08
    price $214,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

27. 2025-10-18
    price $211,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

28. 2025-10-08
    listed $212,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The property is located at 401 Moonlight Graham Boulevard WARD AR 72176 priced at 203000, the square foot and stories are 1489, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,045
• − Insurance: −$1,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,905
• Taxable loss: −$6,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $203,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $203,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $214,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $211,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $214,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $211,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $214,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $211,000 Zillow
• 2026-02-15 Listed $214,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $214,000 Zillow
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $211,000 Zillow
• 2025-10-08 Listed $212,000 Zillow