852 Sun Valley Rd · Birmingham, AL 35215

$147,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1976 0.33 ac lot $54/sqft · 38% below area Est $239k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All the things you see in a new construction home: Open concept, Large kitchen, huge master bathroom, huge closets, and the list goes on. This home boasts 2,700+ square feet and it's perfect for entertaining inside and out! The kitchen flows directly into an open dining area that continues into a den/family area that connects to an additional den/living room area. The master on-suite has a fireplace and hardwood floors. The open spaces continues into a huge backyard that is perfect for entertaining or letting the kids run around. This home is a MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Underground utilities; Well water; Connected sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Four-sided brick construction; Subdivision setting; Not waterfront; Existing (previously built) home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Open porch/patio; Outdoor fireplace

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms across levels (bedrooms on main level, upper level, and third level); Sitting area in primary bedroom; Linen closet
• Flooring: Hardwood and laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring; Subflooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Recessed lighting; Electric fireplace with gas log accents in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Laundry room with floor drain; Electric dryer hookup; Pull-down attic access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 611 students, 82% FRL); Huffman High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,147 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,075 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,914
• List price: $147,500
• Delta: -38.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2340 9th St NW	0.08mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,644 (-2%)	14mo	$168,000	$64	72
1205 Oak Brook Dr NW	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,643 (-2%)	4mo	$332,000	$126	64
1809 NW 9th St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,678 (-1%)	11mo	$260,000	$97	62
2416 NW 6th Pl	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,703 (-0%)	8mo	$255,000	$94	60
1929 11th St NW	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,566 (-5%)	13mo	$280,000	$109	56
2128 Oakwood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,992 (+10%)	4mo	$225,000	$75	55
2328 6th St NW	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,957 (+9%)	9mo	$120,000	$41	53
2325 6th St NW	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,876 (+6%)	9mo	$182,500	$63	53
916 Woodbrook Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,591 (-4%)	10mo	$255,000	$98	52
2112 Park Brook Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,904 (+7%)	10mo	$255,500	$88	47
1301 Oak Brook Dr NW	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,395 (-12%)	4mo	$299,000	$125	46
1849 Indian Summer Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,536 (-6%)	7mo	$260,000	$103	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $857
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $32,823
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,715/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 6th St NW Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,550	$0.85	44d	1	0.88mi
428 26th Ave NW Center Point, AL	4.0	3.0	2796	$1,575	$0.56	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,500 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,500 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,500 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,500 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,500 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $155,000 Active 965-char remark
15. 2026-03-22
    price $169,000
16. 2026-03-16
    price $179,999
17. 2018-10-18
    soldstatus $140,365
18. 2018-10-16
    soldstatus $139,900 Sold

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    All the things you see in a new construction home: Open concept, Large kitchen, huge master bathroom, huge closets, and the list goes on. This home boasts 2,700+ square feet and it's perfect for entertaining inside and out! The kitchen flows directly into an open dining area that continues into a den/family area that connects to an additional den/living room area. The master on-suite has a fireplace and hardwood floors. The open spaces continues into a huge backyard that is perfect for entertaining or letting the kids run around. This home is a MUST SEE!!

19. 2018-09-10
    historical Contingent

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    All the things you see in a new construction home: Open concept, Large kitchen, huge master bathroom, huge closets, and the list goes on. This home boasts 2,700+ square feet and it's perfect for entertaining inside and out! The kitchen flows directly into an open dining area that continues into a den/family area that connects to an additional den/living room area. The master on-suite has a fireplace and hardwood floors. The open spaces continues into a huge backyard that is perfect for entertaining or letting the kids run around. This home is a MUST SEE!!

20. 2018-09-07
    listed $134,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    All the things you see in a new construction home: Open concept, Large kitchen, huge master bathroom, huge closets, and the list goes on. This home boasts 2,700+ square feet and it's perfect for entertaining inside and out! The kitchen flows directly into an open dining area that continues into a den/family area that connects to an additional den/living room area. The master on-suite has a fireplace and hardwood floors. The open spaces continues into a huge backyard that is perfect for entertaining or letting the kids run around. This home is a MUST SEE!!

21. 2018-04-26
    price $135,000
22. 2018-03-13
    price $139,000
23. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus $134,700
24. 2003-11-21
    soldstatus $114,000
25. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus $65,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$1,715
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $2,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$580
• After-tax cash flow: $4,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $147,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $155,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $169,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $179,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $140,365 Public Records
• 2018-10-16 Sold (MLS) $139,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-09-10 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-09-07 Listed $134,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-04-26 Price Changed $135,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-03-13 Price Changed $139,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $134,700 Public Records
• 2003-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,715 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.