4411 Carthage Rd · Seven Lakes, NC 27376

$257,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · Manufactured public records · 304 Days on market

Built 2006 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER OFFERING $7000 IN CLOSING COSTS TO BUYER IF UNDER CONTRACT BEFORE 3/31! 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home sitting on over an acre of land with tons of updates! HVAC AND ROOF ARE NEW! Step inside to brand-new LVP flooring and fresh paint throughout. Spacious kitchen offers ample counter space, brand-new granite countertops, a tile backsplash, and all-new stainless steel appliances. There's room for both a formal living area and a cozy family room featuring a fireplace! All bedrooms have brand-new carpet! The master bathroom is a dream, complete with a soaking tub, walk-in shower, and dual vanity sink. Schedule your showing today!!!

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Fresh paint
• Over an acre of land

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• BRAND-NEW LVP FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• BRAND-NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Seven Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#91 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Pine Elementary (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #302 of 1,410 statewide, top 23%, 395 students, 44% FRL); West Pine Middle (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #37 of 475 statewide, top 8%, 688 students, 28% FRL); Pinecrest High (math 66% / reading 72%, grade B, #131 of 535 statewide, top 25%, 2,221 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $258k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,892
• Equity at exit: $38,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $14,864
• Equity at exit: $22,298

Cash invested: $72,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27376

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,352
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $257,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,475
• Closing costs: $7,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   historical
3. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-05
   status Active
5. 2026-03-05
   price $257,900
6. 2026-01-09
   status Active
7. 2026-01-09
   price $255,000
8. 2025-11-10
   status Active
9. 2025-11-10
   price $259,999
10. 2025-10-31
    historical
11. 2025-10-27
    price $264,999
12. 2025-09-19
    price $268,999
13. 2025-09-09
    price $269,999
14. 2025-08-29
    price $273,000
15. 2025-08-22
    price $277,000
16. 2025-07-19
    price $279,999
17. 2025-06-16
    price $285,000
18. 2025-05-15
    price $295,000
19. 2025-05-02
    price $298,000
20. 2025-04-18
    price $300,000
21. 2025-04-11
    price $309,999
22. 2025-04-04
    price $319,999
23. 2025-03-10
    listed $329,999 Active
24. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus $151,000
25. 2017-09-14
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,279/yr (+$107/mo · 153.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,446
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − Depreciation: −$7,503
• Taxable income: $254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $4,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moore County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,333
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2967
• State rank: #58 of 178 in NC

Livability — Seven Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #6124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,693

Population outlook (Moore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,902 people
• By 2030: 113,134 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 125,682 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 137,811 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 164,387 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 175,595 · +64.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Moore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.65%
• Current HPI: 177.4703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+124.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $257,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $255,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-10 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $259,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $264,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $268,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $269,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $273,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $277,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $279,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $285,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $295,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $298,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $300,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $309,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $319,999 Hive MLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $329,999 Hive MLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $836 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.