1036 Long Bay Ct · Katy, TX 77423

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,998 sqft lot Est $269k · 11% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy and Adorable Home in the growing city of Brookshire, TX! This 3-bedroom 2-bath has been recently upgraded with new light fixtures and ceiling fans. The modern kitchen features Granite countertops, Stainless Steel Appliances and Refrigerator! Enjoy the open-concept layout, seamlessly connecting the family room into the kitchen-perfect for entertaining. Conveniently located close to I-10, shopping, restaurants, hospitals and just 10 minutes from Buc-ee's! Zoned to great Katy ISD schools. Home is ready to move in! Schedule your private showing today and make this your next HOME SWEET HOME!

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Goodwin & Company; Association fee $472 per year

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,664 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1045 Spindletree Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	10mo	$249,900	$206	75
10144 Pappas Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	17mo	$269,000	$221	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-54,737
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-84,553
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$532 /mo · $6,382/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $213,664

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4104 Scarlet Oak Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1917	$2,112	$1.10	1d	2	0.12mi
2011 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,341	$2.60	1d	38	1.10mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,434	$2.33	2d	30	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 598-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $239,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,382 · $532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,382 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$6,382
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Katy, TX is ready to move in and offers a great value with its modern kitchen and bathrooms. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and a new welcome sign would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace the welcome sign — Improves curb appeal and first impression
• Both Clean the gutters — Keeps the home in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace the welcome sign — Improves curb appeal and first impression ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Keeps the home in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $239,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+71.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,382 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.