9769 Possum Hollow Rd · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$64,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1991 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, flippers, and cash buyers! This property offers a blank canvas for your next renovation project. Situated on a spacious lot, this single-story home features a large open living area with vaulted ceilings, and a functional floor plan ready for transformation. Bring your Vision and Contractor—this property is ready for a makeover! Sold As-Is!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Driveway
• Utilities: Other water source
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved public road access; City street frontage; Approximately 0.46 acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans for cooling; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grape Creek Pri (316 students, 74% FRL); Grape Creek Middle (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 270 students, 60% FRL); Grape Creek H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 308 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.82%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,440
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10094 Cottontail Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-4%)	1mo	$245,500	$164	75
7686 Chaparral Run Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	4mo	$225,000	$162	62
7685 Chaparral Run Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+12%)	2mo	$165,000	$95	61
7730 Sandpiper Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+6%)	14mo	$225,000	$137	59
9917 Cottontail Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	20mo	$215,000	$129	58
7705 Whippoorwill Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+6%)	6mo	$105,000	$64	56
7638 Skylark Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-6%)	23mo	$299,900	$205	56
9942 Mt Nebo Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-3%)	24mo	$225,000	$149	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $88,232
• Equity at exit: $58,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.82×
• Total profit: $233,002
• Equity at exit: $126,086

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,202/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $791	-5% $773	+0% $754	+5% $736	+10% $718
Rent	-10% $624	-5% $689	+0% $754	+5% $820	+10% $885
Rate	-1.0pp $787	-0.5pp $771	base $754	+0.5pp $738	+1.0pp $720

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 365-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $64,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,202
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $8,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,065
• After-tax cash flow: $6,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grape Creek, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-64.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $64,900 SAAR TX
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $102,400 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $119,500 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $139,000 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $155,900 LERA
• 2026-02-19 Listed $180,200 LERA
• 2008-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,202 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.