15090 SE 103rd Ave · The Villages, FL 34491

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,321 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2007 0.31 ac lot Est $362k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Square footage and Location, best describe this one. With 2321 sq ft, 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, there is plenty of room for the whole family! The huge kitchen, has tons of storage, an island and a built in eating space. The primary suite has an electric fireplace, walk-in closet, soaker/jacuzzi tub and a shower. With the other 3 bedrooms, bathroom, and 13'x28' family room on the opposite end of the home, there is plenty of privacy. The family room has it's own wood burning fireplace and a built in bar/entertainment area. The privacy fenced backyard features a 12'x23' screened room, a massive open sun deck, a 12'x20' closed in workshop with a 12'x20' carport attached. With a new roof installed

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Soaker jacuzzi tub
• Huge kitchen

Tags

• HUGE KITCHEN
• BUILT IN EATING SPACE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOAKER JACUZZI TUB
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned R4; Lot approximately 0.31 acre (98 x 140); No waterfront access
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Private utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Home faces east; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Split bedroom layout; Wet bar; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,885/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 256% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $250k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,076
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9892 SE 151st Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (-2%)	11mo	$355,000	$156	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,755
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $37,743
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,022/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $600	+0% $529	+5% $458	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $415	+0% $529	+5% $643	+10% $757
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $593	base $529	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10325 SE 144th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	2335	$3,500	$1.50	22d	1	0.73mi
26 SE Ocale Way Summerfield, FL	5.0	3.0	2336	$3,200	$1.37	22d	1	0.79mi
15886 SE 101st Cir Summerfield, FL	5.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	15d	1	0.81mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	22d	1	1.01mi
9393 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	4.0	3.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2021-12-03
   soldstatus $165,000
4. 2003-03-11
   soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,022 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,022 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,022
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$609
• After-tax cash flow: $5,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+228.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,022 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.