24038 Spring Gum Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1983 6,599 sqft lot Est $143k · 11% over $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 24038 Spring Gum! Located in North Spring, this 3 bed, 2 bath home with a 2 car garage is perfect for first time homebuyers, DIY enthusiasts, or investors. Situated on a tree-lined street, this property is close to shopping, schools, and all conveniences. New AC in January 2026. Updated full attic insulation in 2025. New custom windows will be installed end of May 2026. While some work is needed, this home is priced accordingly. A great opportunity to create your dream space in a desirable neighborhood.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Tree-lined street
• Close to shopping

Tags

• TREE-LINED STREET
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: North Spring HOA with an annual fee of $350; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west
• Construction: Built in 1983; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10x10)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (approx. 5x5); Secondary bathroom on the first floor (approx. 5x8)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $159k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,106
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 Goldspring Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+8%)	9mo	$155,000	$122	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,866
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,990
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,314/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,737

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $408	+0% $363	+5% $318	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $276	+0% $363	+5% $450	+10% $537
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $404	base $363	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Pending 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-19
   listed $159,000 Active
5. 1993-08-16
   soldstatus
6. 1989-09-01
   soldstatus $42,258

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,314 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,314 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$5,314
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $3,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+276.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 1993-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,258 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,314 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.