4911 Arbor Dr #22 · Sacramento, CA 95834

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1973 $52/sqft · 14% below area Est $87k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LARGE MOBILE HOME IN STADIUM CLUB ESTATES SR. COMMUNITY FOR 55 +. WHAT A GREAT DEAL ! 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH APPOX 1440 SQ. FT. LARGE LIVING ROOM, FORMAL DINING ROOM AREA PLUS A SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1973
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.5% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.92%
• DSCR: 5.00
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,000
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -13.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4203 Bouquet Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$120,000	$83	87
4907 Gardendell Rd #87	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$101	81
4916 Brookdale Dr #130	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$40,000	$30	80
4901 Gardendell Rd #84	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	5mo	$119,000	$89	80
4922 N Brookdale Dr #128	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$74,900	$49	77
4872 Brookdale #163	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	16mo	$110,000	$79	76
4208 Bouquet Way #38	0.04mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+8%)	11mo	$152,000	$97	70
4229 Bouquet Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$47,500	$38	69
4215 Atrium Way #102	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$120,000	$89	67
4211 Brookside Dr #153	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$105,400	$78	65
4211 Bouquet Way	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	23mo	$117,500	$90	62
4916 Arbor Dr #10	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,272 (-12%)	20mo	$93,000	$73	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $74,579
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $162,362
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $183/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,489	-5% $1,467	+0% $1,446	+5% $1,425	+10% $1,404
Rent	-10% $1,245	-5% $1,346	+0% $1,446	+5% $1,547	+10% $1,647
Rate	-1.0pp $1,484	-0.5pp $1,465	base $1,446	+0.5pp $1,427	+1.0pp $1,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$2,300	$2.42	2d	1	0.20mi
4032 Vittoria Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,795	$1.75	24d	1	0.21mi
4045 Neapolis Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,800	$1.55	3d	1	0.29mi
4118 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1593	$2,995	$1.88	18d	1	0.32mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	24d	1	0.58mi
4450 El Centro Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	845	$2,014	$2.38	2d	9	0.64mi
17 Advantage Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,595	$1.86	44d	1	0.77mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	2d	1	0.81mi
3635 Poppy Hill Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,895	$2.01	24d	1	0.82mi
4200 E Commerce Way #1012 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$1,795	$1.87	44d	1	0.83mi
4200 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,695	$2.09	5d	2	0.86mi
4190 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,675	$2.85	2d	20	0.89mi
3610 Duckhorn Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$2,635	$2.84	2d	29	0.91mi
3547 Jumilla Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,650	$2.00	13d	1	0.95mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	2d	3	0.95mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	44d	1	0.99mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	15d	1	1.00mi
3791 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,970	$3.43	3d	21	1.02mi
3900 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,600	$1.98	44d	1	1.04mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	44d	1	1.06mi
3761 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$3,231	$3.74	2d	29	1.06mi
3828 Aircraft Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,395	$1.31	24d	1	1.17mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	44d	1	1.20mi
2201 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,777	$2.74	3d	14	1.24mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	44d	1	1.27mi
3351 Duckhorn Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	981	$2,030	$2.07	2d	8	1.32mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$2,906	$2.36	2d	26	1.34mi
4101 Innovator Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,695	$2.84	2d	10	1.35mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	8d	1	1.38mi
2490 Quiet Trail Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$2,899	$2.60	2d	14	1.38mi
2442 Buzz Aldrin Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,795	$1.53	15d	1	1.38mi
2445 Buzz Aldrin Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,895	$1.59	5d	1	1.39mi
2445 Buzz Aldrin Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,995	$1.64	24d	1	1.39mi
2445 Buzz Aldrin Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1826	$2,995	$1.64	22d	1	1.39mi
4100 Innovator Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,990	$3.47	2d	18	1.45mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	44d	2	1.46mi
3065 Touchman St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,395	$1.63	21d	1	1.46mi
4000 Innovator Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1403	$2,295	$1.64	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 75 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $183 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 210.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A99 · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$183
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $17,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,133
• After-tax cash flow: $13,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,245
• Household income: $101,260
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 19% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.12%
• Current HPI: 295.8305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $183 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.