19620 Soundview Ave · Southold, NY 11971

$4,395,000

7 bd · 7.5 ba · 7,300 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2025 1.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Southold. Vacant Land. Level buildable lot in a prime Southold location.. One of 3 shy 2-acre building parcels contiguous to the newly approved Wildberry Fields subdivision. Each parcel will have underground utilities in place. Located on a country lane with miles of low traffic, meandering road, perfect for family walks, runners, and bicycle enthusiasts. Lots are part of the Southold Park District, within close proximity to 3 magnificent Sound beaches. Amidst the bucolic North Fork Wine Country, with vineyards, farm stands, and restaurants nearby. Nothing compares. Bring your blueprints and build your dream home.

Key facts

• Private guest wing
• 1.84 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE GUEST WING
• HEATED SALTWATER GUNITE POOL
• BREEZEWAY CONNECTING MUDROOM
• CUSTOM CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WRAP-AROUND MAHOGANY DECK
• PRIMARY SUITE BALCONY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area measured by CubiCasa
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Wrap-around porch; Partial backyard fencing; Private in-ground salt water pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Seven full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Chef's kitchen; Elevator; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Wired for sound; Finished full basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/7.5-bath land listed at $4.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($45k rent vs $4.39M).
• Recommended offer: $4.13M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $30k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $132k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($4.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $625k; list at $4.39M implies a 603% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,131,299 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-381,765
• Equity at exit: $655,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $94,911
• Equity at exit: $379,999

Cash invested: $1,230,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $45,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,494 /mo · $65,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,450
• Net cashflow: $5,177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $38,447

Max offer price $4,395,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,214	-5% $6,696	+0% $5,177	+5% $3,658	+10% $2,140
Rent	-10% $1,622	-5% $3,400	+0% $5,177	+5% $6,955	+10% $8,732
Rate	-1.0pp $7,390	-0.5pp $6,295	base $5,177	+0.5pp $4,038	+1.0pp $2,880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,098,750
• Closing costs: $131,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
57305 Rte 48 Southold, NY	6.0	5.5	6600	$45,000	$6.82	45d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   listed $4,395,000 Active
3. 2026-01-01
   historical
4. 2025-11-28
   price $4,495,000
5. 2025-11-01
   status Active
6. 2025-08-20
   price $4,795,000
7. 2025-07-02
   listed $4,495,000 Active
8. 2023-04-14
   soldstatus $625,000
9. 2023-01-19
   soldstatus $625,000 Closed 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Southold. Vacant Land. Level buildable lot in a prime Southold location.. One of 3 shy 2-acre building parcels contiguous to the newly approved Wildberry Fields subdivision. Each parcel will have underground utilities in place. Located on a country lane with miles of low traffic, meandering road, perfect for family walks, runners, and bicycle enthusiasts. Lots are part of the Southold Park District, within close proximity to 3 magnificent Sound beaches. Amidst the bucolic North Fork Wine Country, with vineyards, farm stands, and restaurants nearby. Nothing compares. Bring your blueprints and build your dream home.

10. 2021-11-20
    status Pending 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Southold. Vacant Land. Level buildable lot in a prime Southold location.. One of 3 shy 2-acre building parcels contiguous to the newly approved Wildberry Fields subdivision. Each parcel will have underground utilities in place. Located on a country lane with miles of low traffic, meandering road, perfect for family walks, runners, and bicycle enthusiasts. Lots are part of the Southold Park District, within close proximity to 3 magnificent Sound beaches. Amidst the bucolic North Fork Wine Country, with vineyards, farm stands, and restaurants nearby. Nothing compares. Bring your blueprints and build your dream home.

11. 2021-10-23
    historical 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Southold. Vacant Land. Level buildable lot in a prime Southold location.. One of 3 shy 2-acre building parcels contiguous to the newly approved Wildberry Fields subdivision. Each parcel will have underground utilities in place. Located on a country lane with miles of low traffic, meandering road, perfect for family walks, runners, and bicycle enthusiasts. Lots are part of the Southold Park District, within close proximity to 3 magnificent Sound beaches. Amidst the bucolic North Fork Wine Country, with vineyards, farm stands, and restaurants nearby. Nothing compares. Bring your blueprints and build your dream home.

12. 2021-10-14
    listed $625,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Southold. Vacant Land. Level buildable lot in a prime Southold location.. One of 3 shy 2-acre building parcels contiguous to the newly approved Wildberry Fields subdivision. Each parcel will have underground utilities in place. Located on a country lane with miles of low traffic, meandering road, perfect for family walks, runners, and bicycle enthusiasts. Lots are part of the Southold Park District, within close proximity to 3 magnificent Sound beaches. Amidst the bucolic North Fork Wine Country, with vineyards, farm stands, and restaurants nearby. Nothing compares. Bring your blueprints and build your dream home.

13. 2005-03-10
    soldstatus $600,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $540,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$246,188
• − Property taxes: −$65,925
• − Insurance: −$21,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$43,200
• − Management: −$43,200
• − Depreciation: −$127,855
• Taxable loss: −$8,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,002
• After-tax cash flow: $64,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+632.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $4,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $4,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $4,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $4,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $625,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-19 Sold (MLS) $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-14 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,765 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.