11830 NW 80th Ct · Manatee Road, FL 32626

$86,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1995 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! BRING ALL OFFERS! Great home for first time home buyer for sale in Chiefland, FL! Needs a little TLC but this home is move in ready! The 2/2 home could also be a great incoming producing property. For any investors looking for a great rental property this is it! Some features of the home include a new AC system, new plumbing, updated well, and roof is only 10 years old. The location is perfect being only 5 minutes from groceries, shopping, restaurants, and medical facilities. Also, a short drive to Manatee Springs and a 20 minute drive to the Gulf of America. Home is listed for less than appraised amount. Call today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Updated well
• New ac system

Tags

• NEW AC SYSTEM
• NEW PLUMBING
• UPDATED WELL
• ROOF IS ONLY 10 YEARS OLD
• 5 MINUTES FROM GROCERIES
• SHORT DRIVE TO MANATEE SPRINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.8% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $86k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.90%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,096
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12290 NW 85th Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-2%)	0mo	$215,000	$181	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $40,893
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $106,210
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32626

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $86,000 Active
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $87,000 Active
3. 2026-03-16
   price $90,000
4. 2026-03-04
   price $94,000
5. 2026-02-11
   listed $99,000 Active
6. 2019-04-09
   soldstatus $49,900
7. 2019-03-25
   soldstatus $49,900
8. 2019-02-13
   listed $49,900
9. 2006-04-06
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $9,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $8,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manatee Road, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,994

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 282.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+855.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $86,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $87,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $90,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $94,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $99,000 DGLMLS
• 2019-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2019-03-25 Sold (MLS) $49,900 DGLMLS
• 2019-02-13 Listed $49,900 DGLMLS
• 2006-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.