2401 Brown Pelican Ln · Harlingen, TX 78552

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2026 6,902 sqft lot $184/sqft · 9% below area Est $253k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new construction offering comfort, style, and affordability! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features 1,245 living sq. ft. with an easy-flow layout, quartz countertops, and modern finishes throughout. Construction has just begun, giving buyers the opportunity to personalize select details such as paint colors, fixtures, and finishes. Secure your home early and watch it come to life. Estimated completion is just in time for the upcoming school year. A beautiful new home at an attainable price—don’t miss it!

Key facts

• 6,902 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-640/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Hesiquio Rodriguez El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 610 students, 64% FRL); Gutierrez Middle (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Harlingen H S (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,942 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $230k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $171,443 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,941
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -9.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8729 Swan Lake Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+14%)	13mo	$257,900	$181	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-45,778
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-64,003
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $220,576

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $12	+0% $-53	+5% $-118	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-121	+0% $-53	+5% $14	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $5	base $-53	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8822 Albatross St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	23d	1	0.27mi
1716 Palm Valley Dr W Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,450	$1.23	15d	1	1.19mi
1500 Palm Valley Dr W #12 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1625	$1,350	$0.83	15d	1	1.22mi
5408 Guava Dr Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1660	$1,400	$0.84	15d	1	1.27mi
6020 Masters Blvd Unit 2 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,075	$1.07	45d	1	1.39mi
609 Inverary Dr Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,000	$1.11	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $230,000 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Brand-new construction offering comfort, style, and affordability! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features 1,245 living sq. ft. with an easy-flow layout, quartz countertops, and modern finishes throughout. Construction has just begun, giving buyers the opportunity to personalize select details such as paint colors, fixtures, and finishes. Secure your home early and watch it come to life. Estimated completion is just in time for the upcoming school year. A beautiful new home at an attainable price—don't miss it!

17. 2026-03-21
    listed $230,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Brand-new construction offering comfort, style, and affordability! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features 1,245 living sq. ft. with an easy-flow layout, quartz countertops, and modern finishes throughout. Construction has just begun, giving buyers the opportunity to personalize select details such as paint colors, fixtures, and finishes. Secure your home early and watch it come to life. Estimated completion is just in time for the upcoming school year. A beautiful new home at an attainable price—don't miss it!

18. 2025-11-04
    soldstatus $48,989

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,940/yr (+$245/mo · 231.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+369.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $230,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $230,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $48,989 Public Records

Property tax history

+35.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · +55.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.