121 Whispering Pnes · Scroggins, TX 75480

$395,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 990 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 0.75 ac lot $198/sqft · 47% below area Est $743k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Audrey boasts approximately 3520 sf under roof, a huge wrap around porch and a porte-cochere designed to store an RV. The porte-cochere is 14' tall and 12' wide and 40' deep, plenty of room for an RV. Storing your boats, classic cars, RV or lake toys inside the Boat Barn are easy with the two 14' tall large doors for access . The driveway is large and wide making backing up a trailer a breeze. The living quarters/ManCave has a full kitchen, den, 2 bedrooms and two baths with the bedrooms and bath upstairs with a loft. This is under construction and plenty of time to customize to your particular needs.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-51/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $345k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 0.7% in Scroggins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,450/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 990 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $345,000 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 990 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $742,629
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -46.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Private Road 4303	0.09mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (0%)	6mo	$399,000	$200	83
329 Hickory Hill Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (-5%)	10mo	$1,369,000	$722	56
85 SE County Road Se 4305	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (-10%)	17mo	$299,999	$167	54
103 King Club Blvd	1.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (-4%)	16mo	$999,000	$519	40
1956 Charlya	1.06mi	2/2.0	1,845 (-8%)	15mo	$825,000	$447	40
133 Lake Shore Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,884 (-6%)	15mo	$839,000	$445	38
319 South Park Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (-7%)	24mo	$949,000	$510	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $93,675
• Equity at exit: $226,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $282,276
• Equity at exit: $394,089

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $552,500 ($265/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +40.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,455

Max offer price $394,384

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $132	+0% $-4	+5% $-141	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-141	+0% $-4	+5% $132	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $96	base $-4	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Miller Rd Scroggins, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,450	$2.32	139d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-29
   days on market $395,000 Active 990 DOM
2. 2026-08-28
   days on market $395,000 Active 989 DOM
3. 2026-08-27
   days on market $395,000 Active 988 DOM
4. 2026-08-25
   days on market $395,000 Active 986 DOM
5. 2026-08-24
   days on market $395,000 Active 985 DOM
6. 2026-08-23
   days on market $395,000 Active 984 DOM
7. 2026-08-22
   days on market $395,000 Active 983 DOM
8. 2026-08-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 982 DOM
9. 2026-08-20
   days on market $395,000 Active 981 DOM
10. 2026-08-19
    days on market $395,000 Active 980 DOM
11. 2026-08-18
    days on market $395,000 Active 979 DOM
12. 2026-08-17
    days on market $395,000 Active 978 DOM
13. 2026-08-16
    days on market $395,000 Active 977 DOM
14. 2026-08-15
    days on market $395,000 Active 976 DOM
15. 2026-08-15
    days on market $395,000 Active 975 DOM
16. 2026-08-13
    days on market $395,000 Active 974 DOM
17. 2026-08-12
    days on market $395,000 Active 973 DOM
18. 2026-08-11
    days on market $395,000 Active 972 DOM
19. 2026-08-10
    days on market $395,000 Active 971 DOM
20. 2026-08-09
    days on market $395,000 Active 970 DOM
21. 2026-08-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 969 DOM
22. 2026-08-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 968 DOM
23. 2026-08-06
    days on market $395,000 Active 967 DOM
24. 2026-08-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 966 DOM
25. 2026-08-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 965 DOM
26. 2026-08-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 964 DOM
27. 2026-07-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 961 DOM
28. 2026-07-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 960 DOM
29. 2026-07-29
    days on market $395,000 Active 959 DOM
30. 2026-07-27
    days on market $395,000 Active 957 DOM
31. 2026-07-25
    days on market $395,000 Active 955 DOM
32. 2026-07-24
    days on market $395,000 Active 954 DOM
33. 2026-07-23
    days on market $395,000 Active 953 DOM
34. 2026-07-22
    days on market $395,000 Active 952 DOM
35. 2026-07-21
    days on market $395,000 Active 951 DOM
36. 2026-07-18
    days on market $395,000 Active 948 DOM
37. 2026-07-16
    days on market $395,000 Active 946 DOM
38. 2026-07-15
    days on market $395,000 Active 945 DOM
39. 2026-07-14
    days on market $395,000 Active 944 DOM
40. 2026-07-13
    days on market $395,000 Active 943 DOM
41. 2026-07-12
    days on market $395,000 Active 942 DOM
42. 2026-07-11
    days on market $395,000 Active 941 DOM
43. 2026-07-11
    days on market $395,000 Active 940 DOM
44. 2026-07-09
    days on market $395,000 Active 939 DOM
45. 2026-07-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 938 DOM
46. 2026-07-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 937 DOM
47. 2026-07-06
    days on market $395,000 Active 936 DOM
48. 2026-07-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 935 DOM
49. 2026-07-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 934 DOM
50. 2026-07-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 933 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$6,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with no immediate repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready home with excellent curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and property value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Vernon El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 High Mt Vernon H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scroggins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin · 10,621 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,787
• Household income: $70,935
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own

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Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

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Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-12-14 Listed $395,000 Zillow