8529 Hearth Dr #34 · Houston, TX 77054

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Condo public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1979 $70/sqft · 7% above area Est $98k · 7% over $580/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in Houston's Medical Center area, this 3-bed, 2-bath condo is perfect for families, medical professionals, or anyone seeking convenience. Gated community with covered parking and security patrols for peace of mind. Zoned to Bellaire High School. Abundant natural light, spacious living areas, and a practical flow for daily living. Close to parks, restaurants, nightlife, and entertainment. Minutes from NRG Stadium, Arena, and Park. Vacant unit with AI-enhanced images. Don't miss this opportunity to own in one of Houston's most accessible neighborhoods.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Close to parks
• Close to restaurants

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED PARKING
• SECURITY PATROLS
• ZONED TO BELLAIRE HIGH SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $105k implies a 568% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,205
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 6.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-13,432
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-20,847
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,321/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8415 Hearth Dr Unit 1019639P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$5,258	$3.51	5d	1	0.10mi
8415 Hearth Dr #25 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,950	$2.63	44d	1	0.10mi
2801 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	12d	1	0.10mi
8521 Hearth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,195	$1.09	44d	1	0.12mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,920	$1.96	2d	27	0.23mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,810	$1.84	44d	35	0.23mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	3d	3	0.25mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,808	$1.80	8d	3	0.25mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	12d	2	0.25mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC3 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	44d	1	0.26mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,595	$1.42	44d	1	0.26mi
2989 Westridge St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,639	$1.48	12d	1	0.35mi
9955 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,949	$2.23	1d	18	0.35mi
9330 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,460	$2.69	1d	51	0.43mi
9426 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,040	$1.61	44d	1	0.44mi
9330 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,415	$2.56	15d	53	0.45mi
9016 Bayview Cove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2245	$4,200	$1.87	19d	1	0.55mi
3000 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,299	$1.50	2d	34	0.55mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10224 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,738	$1.57	11d	1	0.58mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	8d	1	0.58mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	5d	1	0.58mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10234 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,074	$1.36	11d	1	0.58mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	22d	1	0.61mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	44d	1	0.61mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,983	$1.71	11d	1	0.61mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 9144 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,660	$1.43	44d	1	0.61mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,951	$1.69	3d	1	0.61mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,917	$1.26	19d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,042	$1.34	3d	1	0.67mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,706	$1.54	3d	1	0.67mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10334 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,975	$1.39	44d	1	0.67mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,929	$1.36	3d	1	0.67mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	11d	1	0.67mi
10191 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,110	$2.20	2d	142	0.67mi
9150 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,702	$1.47	12d	1	0.69mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,103	$2.05	2d	18	0.76mi
8706 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,725	$1.49	44d	1	0.77mi
3131 W Bellfort Ave Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,914	$1.64	5d	1	0.78mi
8700 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,859	$1.95	2d	4	0.78mi
9707 Timberside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,740	$1.80	8d	7	0.80mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $105,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Nestled in Houston's Medical Center area, this 3-bed, 2-bath condo is perfect for families, medical professionals, or anyone seeking convenience. Gated community with covered parking and security patrols for peace of mind. Zoned to Bellaire High School. Abundant natural light, spacious living areas, and a practical flow for daily living. Close to parks, restaurants, nightlife, and entertainment. Minutes from NRG Stadium, Arena, and Park. Vacant unit with AI-enhanced images. Don't miss this opportunity to own in one of Houston's most accessible neighborhoods.

13. 2026-03-26
    historical
14. 2025-10-14
    historical
15. 2025-10-14
    listed $117,000 Active
16. 2025-07-09
    listed $117,000 Active
17. 2024-10-09
    soldstatus
18. 2016-04-25
    soldstatus
19. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus
20. 2006-11-30
    soldstatus
21. 2001-12-21
    soldstatus
22. 1990-02-09
    soldstatus $15,725

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,321
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $556
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$133
• After-tax cash flow: $1,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+567.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,725 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,321 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.