8 Pioneer Trl · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$245,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 2006 8,800 sqft lot Est $260k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks!! Single family house sitting on a quarter of an acre in Blooming Grove, NY. House is serviced by a private well that provides water year round. (Many of the houses in the area are only seasonal). The well is shared with two other houses. The framing of 8 Pioneer was completed in 2016, but the house need to be finished / remodeled on the interior. Much of the hard work has been done. Electric is in place, but currently, it is not on. House is serviced by Oil. This could make for a great weekend getaway or full time residence. Part of the Washingtonville School District. The drone pictures with the red outline reflect both 8 and 10 Pioneer. This price is for 8 Pioneer only. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• Sunny deck
• Spacious backyard
• Fully gut-renovated

Tags

• FULLY GUT-RENOVATED
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• SUNNY DECK
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MOUNTAIN LODGE PARK COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity available and connected (Orange & Rockland)
• Home design: Single family residence; Estimated condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level and sloped lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes first-floor bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: No basement (crawl space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-183/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Round Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 653 students, 38% FRL); Washingtonville Middle School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 900 students, 35% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 16% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $245k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,752
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Hillcrest Trl	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	6mo	$295,000	$295	67
13 Pioneer Trl	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	20mo	$55,000	$46	60
3 Brookside Trl	0.53mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+2%)	9mo	$265,000	$237	55
15 Arcadian Trl	0.62mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$162,000	$161	48
14 Silver Trl	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,212 (+11%)	9mo	$185,000	$153	48
5 Orchard Trl	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	963 (-12%)	6mo	$264,500	$275	46
1 Herbst Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+5%)	21mo	$180,000	$156	45
15 Claremont Trl	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	980 (-11%)	8mo	$265,000	$270	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-43,858
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,114
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,225/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $242,300

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $54	+0% $-15	+5% $-85	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-101	+0% $-15	+5% $71	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $47	base $-15	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
66 Higgins Trl Blooming Grove, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	15d	1	0.29mi
12 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	15d	1	0.36mi
357 Mountain Lodge Rd Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	15d	1	0.47mi
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	15d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $245,000
3. 2026-03-10
   price $249,000
4. 2026-02-12
   status Active
5. 2026-02-12
   historical
6. 2026-01-20
   price $259,000
7. 2025-11-10
   price $274,000
8. 2025-10-16
   price $289,000
9. 2025-09-02
   price $299,000
10. 2025-07-10
    listed $325,000 Active
11. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus $55,000
12. 2023-06-06
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Opportunity knocks!! Single family house sitting on a quarter of an acre in Blooming Grove, NY. House is serviced by a private well that provides water year round. (Many of the houses in the area are only seasonal). The well is shared with two other houses. The framing of 8 Pioneer was completed in 2016, but the house need to be finished / remodeled on the interior. Much of the hard work has been done. Electric is in place, but currently, it is not on. House is serviced by Oil. This could make for a great weekend getaway or full time residence. Part of the Washingtonville School District. The drone pictures with the red outline reflect both 8 and 10 Pioneer. This price is for 8 Pioneer only. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

13. 2023-04-21
    status Pending 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Opportunity knocks!! Single family house sitting on a quarter of an acre in Blooming Grove, NY. House is serviced by a private well that provides water year round. (Many of the houses in the area are only seasonal). The well is shared with two other houses. The framing of 8 Pioneer was completed in 2016, but the house need to be finished / remodeled on the interior. Much of the hard work has been done. Electric is in place, but currently, it is not on. House is serviced by Oil. This could make for a great weekend getaway or full time residence. Part of the Washingtonville School District. The drone pictures with the red outline reflect both 8 and 10 Pioneer. This price is for 8 Pioneer only. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

14. 2023-03-10
    listed $60,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Opportunity knocks!! Single family house sitting on a quarter of an acre in Blooming Grove, NY. House is serviced by a private well that provides water year round. (Many of the houses in the area are only seasonal). The well is shared with two other houses. The framing of 8 Pioneer was completed in 2016, but the house need to be finished / remodeled on the interior. Much of the hard work has been done. Electric is in place, but currently, it is not on. House is serviced by Oil. This could make for a great weekend getaway or full time residence. Part of the Washingtonville School District. The drone pictures with the red outline reflect both 8 and 10 Pioneer. This price is for 8 Pioneer only. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

15. 2023-01-10
    price $60,000
16. 2022-12-19
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2004-03-22
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,225 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,225 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,225
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3400.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $274,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-06 Sold (MLS) $40,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-10 Listed $60,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-10 Price Changed $60,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-19 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,225 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.