937 Birkdale Dr · Ennis, TX 75119

$228,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Land · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 5,062 sqft lot $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Prairie View - Kitson Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Houston El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 302 students, 77% FRL); Ennis J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 886 students, 69% FRL); Ennis H S (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,791 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $212,453 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,340
• Equity at exit: $34,144

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,016
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75119

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $228,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $283	+0% $219	+5% $154	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $135	+0% $219	+5% $302	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $277	base $219	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	4d	1	1.01mi
1107 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	0d	1	1.07mi
1200 Canterbury Ln Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,250	$1.49	12d	1	1.15mi
1213 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,100	$1.24	3d	1	1.22mi
1209 Vicksburg Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1759	$1,970	$1.12	17d	1	1.36mi
907 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,199	$1.28	8d	1	1.37mi
904 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,099	$1.61	26d	1	1.39mi
1001 Odlozil Ln Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,899	$1.10	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   price $228,999
3. 2026-02-27
   status Active
4. 2025-11-08
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-07
   listed $221,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,176/yr (+$265/mo · 313.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$1,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$284
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ennis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,105
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5283
• State rank: #411 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ennis

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #6893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ennis, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 31,866
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,866
• Household income: $77,053
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.30%
• Current HPI: 253.0134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $228,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $221,999 NTREIS