37437 Gill Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 6,000 sqft lot Est $219k · at est. $77/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2005 Doublewide in beautiful 55+ community. 2005 HOME AND LAND, 3 bed / 2 bath, 1512 sqft, Concrete Driveway. Land included 6000 sqft. Carport. Shed. Roof 5 years old. AC 11 years old. Taxes roughly $1720. Subdivision: GRAND HORIZONS. A desirable 55+ community where you own the land, NO lot rent! . Owner Occupants only. Golf Carts allowed. Includes all Furniture or Can be sold without. Enjoy the Resident owned Amenities including Clubhouse with stage, commercial kitchen, Billiards room, craft room, library, stage, heated swimming pool and hot tub, shuffleboard, bocce, cornhole, horseshoes, private streets, golf cart parking, planned activities, onsite dinner shows and fun entertainment, exc

Key facts

• Ac 11 years old
• Shed
• Carport

Tags

• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• CARPORT
• SHED
• ROOF 5 YEARS OLD
• AC 11 YEARS OLD
• SUBDIVISION GRAND HORIZONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot approximately 0.14 acres; Living area reported as 1,512 sq ft; Building area reported as 2,184 sq ft; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Grand Horizons HOA, monthly fee $77 (required); association approval required; Community amenities include pool, recreation facilities, and shuffleboard; Deed-restricted senior community; pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porch/patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,152/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $219k implies a 812% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,164 (1.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37510 New Horizons Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	90
37551 Lilly Bea Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	5mo	$225,000	$149	90
37539 Gill Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	6mo	$219,000	$145	90
37544 Corey Lewis Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	7mo	$210,000	$139	88
37630 Landis Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	4mo	$189,000	$125	85
37142 Neukom Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+5%)	6mo	$251,000	$158	75
7918 Kay Marie Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+6%)	5mo	$265,000	$166	72
37635 Gill Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-7%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	71
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-8%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	67
37526 Rio Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-4%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	57
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	47
37501 Campo Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,859
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-28,520
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$2,315	$2.15	1d	34	0.66mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.91mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	24d	1	1.06mi
6722 Northlake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	2215	$2,450	$1.11	24d	1	1.16mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.20mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	14d	1	1.22mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	1.22mi
6766 Shelby Lynn Way Unit 1A Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2124	$2,800	$1.32	12d	1	1.26mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	1.46mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $219,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$181
• After-tax cash flow: $2,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+812.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.