2912 Asher Path · The Villages, FL 32163

$519,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2011 6,140 sqft lot Est $557k · 7% under $199/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designer Holly 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths, Beautifully Furnished /Turn key Plus Golf Cart As you enter Large Ceramic Tile foyer off the foyer 2 guest bedrooms with full bath walk in closet Pocket Doors for Privacy with Tray ceilings. Ceiling Fans in both bedrooms. Double Doors lead into master Bedroom features Laminate floors, Large 2 walk in closets, Master bath has Roman Shower double Sinks Corian Countertops ceiling Fans. Gourmet Kitchen with Corian Counter tops , Large Center Island , Built in Computer work Station , Under cabinets lighting, S. S. Appliances , Pull drawers , Volume Ceiling adjoining Dining Room. Expanded lanai , Mature Landscaping for extra Privacy. Prime Location Village of Sanibel Mintues from Lake Sumter and Brownwood Close to Shopping. .

Key facts

• 6,140 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre; Lot is level, private and paved
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association with clubhouse, fitness center, pool, recreation facilities, gated access, tennis and pickleball courts, dog park, park, and golf (golf carts allowed); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 21); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing; Residential zoning; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened porch areas; Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Outdoor lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Tray ceiling; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($489k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $380k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,697 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.35%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $557,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2921 Evinston Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,045 (-1%)	3mo	$565,000	$276	82
909 Vanilla Leaf Pl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,939 (-6%)	1mo	$495,000	$255	78
3183 Apollo Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,050 (-1%)	2mo	$629,000	$307	71
650 Bradford Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,875 (-9%)	1mo	$400,000	$213	70
527 Beville Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,050 (-1%)	4mo	$555,000	$271	68
2725 Halsey Ter	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-7%)	3mo	$590,000	$306	67
3102 Raven Croft Ter	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-5%)	3mo	$500,000	$254	67
3258 Sylewood Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,956 (-5%)	1mo	$430,000	$220	62
3248 Killington Loop	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,842 (-11%)	3mo	$497,000	$270	61
595 Yarborough Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-5%)	2mo	$549,000	$279	60
1175 Kinsley St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-7%)	0mo	$468,000	$243	55
2454 Monroe Ter	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-7%)	4mo	$350,000	$182	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $218,685
• Equity at exit: $468,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $694,839
• Equity at exit: $1,010,051

Cash invested: $145,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,518/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,559

Max offer price $340,941

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,975
• Closing costs: $15,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
798 Journey Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,300	$1.48	20d	1	0.15mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	20d	1	0.17mi
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	20d	1	0.38mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	20d	1	0.65mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	20d	1	0.89mi
2614 Dartford Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,995	$1.18	20d	1	1.08mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	20d	1	1.10mi
1069 Becker Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1656	$5,000	$3.02	23d	1	1.39mi
3225 Wise Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,650	$1.60	23d	1	1.45mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	20d	1	1.45mi
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	20d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $519,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $519,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $519,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $519,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $519,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $519,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $519,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $519,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $539,900
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $549,900 Active
18. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus $380,000
19. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus $380,000 Sold 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Designer Holly 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths, Beautifully Furnished /Turn key Plus Golf Cart As you enter Large Ceramic Tile foyer off the foyer 2 guest bedrooms with full bath walk in closet Pocket Doors for Privacy with Tray ceilings. Ceiling Fans in both bedrooms. Double Doors lead into master Bedroom features Laminate floors, Large 2 walk in closets, Master bath has Roman Shower double Sinks Corian Countertops ceiling Fans. Gourmet Kitchen with Corian Counter tops , Large Center Island , Built in Computer work Station , Under cabinets lighting, S. S. Appliances , Pull drawers , Volume Ceiling adjoining Dining Room. Expanded lanai , Mature Landscaping for extra Privacy. Prime Location Village of Sanibel Mintues from Lake Sumter and Brownwood Close to Shopping. .

20. 2020-01-06
    status Pending 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Designer Holly 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths, Beautifully Furnished /Turn key Plus Golf Cart As you enter Large Ceramic Tile foyer off the foyer 2 guest bedrooms with full bath walk in closet Pocket Doors for Privacy with Tray ceilings. Ceiling Fans in both bedrooms. Double Doors lead into master Bedroom features Laminate floors, Large 2 walk in closets, Master bath has Roman Shower double Sinks Corian Countertops ceiling Fans. Gourmet Kitchen with Corian Counter tops , Large Center Island , Built in Computer work Station , Under cabinets lighting, S. S. Appliances , Pull drawers , Volume Ceiling adjoining Dining Room. Expanded lanai , Mature Landscaping for extra Privacy. Prime Location Village of Sanibel Mintues from Lake Sumter and Brownwood Close to Shopping. .

21. 2019-10-22
    listed $387,500 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Designer Holly 3 Bedrooms 2 Full Baths, Beautifully Furnished /Turn key Plus Golf Cart As you enter Large Ceramic Tile foyer off the foyer 2 guest bedrooms with full bath walk in closet Pocket Doors for Privacy with Tray ceilings. Ceiling Fans in both bedrooms. Double Doors lead into master Bedroom features Laminate floors, Large 2 walk in closets, Master bath has Roman Shower double Sinks Corian Countertops ceiling Fans. Gourmet Kitchen with Corian Counter tops , Large Center Island , Built in Computer work Station , Under cabinets lighting, S. S. Appliances , Pull drawers , Volume Ceiling adjoining Dining Room. Expanded lanai , Mature Landscaping for extra Privacy. Prime Location Village of Sanibel Mintues from Lake Sumter and Brownwood Close to Shopping. .

22. 2019-07-08
    historical
23. 2019-04-15
    price $390,000
24. 2019-04-01
    price $396,000
25. 2019-02-28
    price $399,000
26. 2019-02-06
    price $410,000
27. 2018-09-29
    historical
28. 2018-09-14
    listed $420,000 Active
29. 2018-03-29
    listed $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,518 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,518 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,122
• − Property taxes: −$5,518
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,146
• − Management: −$3,146
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$15,124
• Taxable loss: −$21,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,213
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $539,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $549,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-28 Sold (MLS) $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-22 Listed $387,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-15 Price Changed $390,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-01 Price Changed $396,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-28 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-06 Price Changed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-29 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2018-09-14 Listed $420,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-29 Listed $425,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,518 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.