846 Butternut Rd · Unadilla, NY 13849

$175,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 3.82 ac lot $231/sqft · 20% above area Est $311k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a peaceful stretch of Butternut Road, this picturesque property offers the kind of quiet, open-country setting that's hard to find, providing beautiful long-range views and gorgeous sunrises over a private pond. Relax on the large back porch overlooking the rolling hillside, drop a line in the tranquil pond, or soak up the sun while watching the wildlife. Enjoy a spacious yard with plenty of room to add a garage, workshop, and additional outbuildings. Inside the home you will find 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on the first floor, a newer kitchen with easy access to laundry space, and a wood stove to keep you toasty on those cold nights. The basement offers more room to expand, along wi

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Long-range views
• Private pond

Tags

• QUIET OPEN-COUNTRY SETTING
• LONG-RANGE VIEWS
• PRIVATE POND
• LARGE BACK PORCH
• SPACIOUS YARD
• ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story; Single wide mobile home; Exterior entry basement; Partial, partially finished walk-up basement; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as existing (year built details: Existing)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Dirt driveway; Gravel driveway; Open porch; Patio/porch; Flag lot; Rural lot; Pond; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Solid surface counters; Pantry; Country kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Electric, Wood, Baseboard
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Pantry; Sliding glass door(s); Solid surface counters; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 5.5% in Unadilla — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#950 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Otego-Unadilla Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #547 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Unadilla Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 46% FRL); Unatego Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 188 students, 47% FRL); Unatego Junior-Senior High School (math 95% / reading 90%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 250 students, 40% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 37% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Otego-Unadilla Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $106,022 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,558
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -43.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $70,518
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $227,375
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13849

• Home prices YoY: 32.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $106,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-341	+0% $-390	+5% $-440	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-436	+0% $-390	+5% $-345	+10% $-299
Rate	-1.0pp $-302	-0.5pp $-346	base $-390	+0.5pp $-436	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract 1069-char remark
8. 2026-04-22
   listed $175,000 Active 1069-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,795 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,795 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Otego-Unadilla Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,590
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5896
• State rank: #547 of 590 in NY

Livability — Unadilla

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #950
• US rank: #18482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,351

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 82.22%
• Current HPI: 333.8209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $175,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,795 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.