3494 Channel Dr · Nyona Lake, IN 46951

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1976 0.31 ac lot Est $136k · 26% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 2 bedroom home w/ channel frontage has: oak kitchen, vaulted ceiling in the large living room, gas fireplace, appliances including washer & dryer, remodeled bath with walk-in shower, 10x18 screened deck, 10x12 patio, 25x32 channel lot, 3x16 pier, detached 20x12 garage , plus a 24x26 pole barn.

Key facts

• 10x12 patio
• Vaulted ceiling
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILING
• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• 10X18 DECK
• 10X12 PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caston School Corporation (rural): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #238 of 301 in IN (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caston Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #652 of 994 statewide, top 68%, 391 students, 68% FRL); Caston Jr-Sr High School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #314 of 369 statewide, top 85%, 444 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 35% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3494 Channel Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,132 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$75	99
6401 Shafer Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+14%)	21mo	$155,000	$120	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,518
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,501
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46951

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $155	+0% $120	+5% $86	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $80	+0% $120	+5% $161	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $146	base $120	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $99,900 Active
3. 2021-06-29
   soldstatus $118,000 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom home w/ channel frontage has: oak kitchen, vaulted ceiling in the large living room, gas fireplace, appliances including washer & dryer, remodeled bath with walk-in shower, 10x18 screened deck, 10x12 patio, 25x32 channel lot, 3x16 pier, detached 20x12 garage , plus a 24x26 pole barn.

4. 2021-04-13
   listed $124,000 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Very nice 2 bedroom home w/ channel frontage has: oak kitchen, vaulted ceiling in the large living room, gas fireplace, appliances including washer & dryer, remodeled bath with walk-in shower, 10x18 screened deck, 10x12 patio, 25x32 channel lot, 3x16 pier, detached 20x12 garage , plus a 24x26 pole barn.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $1,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caston School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1801410
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,737
• Composite: 25.87/100
• National rank: #7346
• State rank: #238 of 301 in IN

Livability — Nyona Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nyona Lake, IN
• Population (ZIP): 2,016

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,537 people
• By 2030: 19,013 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 17,959 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 17,038 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 15,117 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 13,179 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% English 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.2) · D 23.7% · R 74.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.2pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -51.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.2 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.39%
• Current HPI: 224.6246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $99,900 IRMLS
• 2021-06-29 Sold (MLS) $118,000 IRMLS
• 2021-04-13 Listed $124,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-11.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $186 · -29.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.