12841 Orion Ct · Conroe, TX 77318

$279,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1975 3,602 sqft lot $130/sqft · at area comps Est $314k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

Key facts

• Two sparkling pools
• Playgrounds
• Two boat launches

Tags

• GUARDED LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO MARINA
• TWO BOAT LAUNCHES
• TWO SPARKLING POOLS
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS
• PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green features: HVAC efficiency, insulation, energy-efficient thermostat
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; North-facing; Built in 1975
• Construction: Construction details not provided; Year built 1975
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (11 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 13); Second-floor bedrooms: 20 x 14; 14 x 13; 14 x 15
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; One fireplace; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,623 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,076
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -11.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12944 Point Aquarius Blvd	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,257 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$155	80
14864 Cetus Ct	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,057 (-4%)	1mo	$265,000	$129	79
12761 Capricornus Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-9%)	2mo	$350,000	$180	78
12377 Taurus Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,082 (-3%)	8mo	$374,995	$180	65
13417 W Summerchase Cir	0.32mi	4/3.0	1,930 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$155	64
13003 Point Aquarius Blvd	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,404 (+12%)	3mo	$374,999	$156	60
14535 Gemini Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (-9%)	8mo	$350,000	$179	58
12568 Taurus Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-15%)	3mo	$324,990	$178	53
14330 S Summerchase Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$152	51
12385 Aries Loop S	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,389 (+12%)	4mo	$398,900	$167	50
12177 Arcturus Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-5%)	7mo	$330,000	$163	47
12261 Arcturus Dr	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,453 (+14%)	6mo	$450,000	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-61,169
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-90,632
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,024/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $252,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-69	+0% $-148	+5% $-227	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-236	+0% $-148	+5% $-60	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-77	base $-148	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13349 Bunker Hill Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,800	$1.05	44d	1	1.31mi
13285 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,466	$0.88	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $2,000
2. 2026-05-12
   price $279,000 900-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $289,000 Active 900-char remark
4. 2026-04-22
   listed $2,200
5. 2022-08-17
   historical
6. 2022-07-05
   price $2,660
7. 2022-06-26
   price $290,000
8. 2022-06-17
   price $294,999
9. 2022-06-03
   listed $299,999 Active
10. 2021-03-19
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

11. 2021-02-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

12. 2020-11-02
    price $195,000

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

13. 2020-10-23
    historical

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

14. 2020-10-23
    listed $205,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Newly renovated single family home in sought after Lake Conroe community of Point Aquarius. Updates include new exterior siding, all new bathrooms, new kitchen, granite counters, high end fixtures, luxury vinyl plank floors downstairs and carpet upstairs, smart home thermostat and more. New roof installed in 2018 and transferable lifetime warranty on foundation. A large storage room is upstairs with easy access. Secure community - with gate and manned guard at entrance - offers two marinas, boat ramps, tennis, basketball, sand volleyball courts, and disc golf. Relax and enjoy the open areas and spectacular sunsets on the lake.

15. 2020-10-09
    price $205,000
16. 2020-09-07
    price $220,000
17. 2020-07-30
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,082/yr (+$90/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,024
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,147
• − Management: −$2,147
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2022-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $2,660 RENT.
• 2022-06-26 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $294,999 HARMLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-02 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-23 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-09 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-07 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-30 Listed $230,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,024 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.