10526 Carena Cir · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$539,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2012 8,668 sqft lot Est $668k · 19% under $641/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 55% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great new price on this stunning property located in the sought-after Carena neighborhood. With 193 homes, low fees, and a plethora of amenities, this property is truly a gem. The original owners have meticulously maintained the property, ensuring it is in pristine condition. The San Remo floor plan offers 3+ bedrooms and 2.5 baths, along with ample counter space, cabinets, 2 pantries, and under cabinet lighting in the kitchen. Storage is abundant throughout the home, and the lanai provides a perfect spot to relax and enjoy breathtaking sunsets, water, and golf views. The property offers the potential to expand the lanai and add a pool. Featuring tile flooring throughout and carpet in the b

Key facts

• Golf views
• Ample counter space
• Water views

Tags

• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING
• WATER VIEWS
• GOLF VIEWS
• TILE FLOORING
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $539k).
• Recommended offer: $523k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 811 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,598/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($523k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $668,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10574 Carena Cir	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,251 (+0%)	6mo	$740,000	$329	81
11516 Giulia Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,041 (-9%)	2mo	$590,000	$289	74
10461 Migliera Way	0.55mi	3/3.0	2,201 (-2%)	3mo	$755,000	$343	69
10555 Carena Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,041 (-9%)	2mo	$540,000	$265	68
10426 Migliera Way	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,251 (+0%)	2mo	$580,000	$258	67
10500 Solaro St	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,433 (+8%)	4mo	$725,000	$298	66
10565 Pistoia Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,247 (+0%)	3mo	$785,000	$349	65
11238 Shady Blossom Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,202 (-2%)	2mo	$515,000	$234	61
10907 Maitland Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,107 (-6%)	4mo	$610,000	$290	56
10912 Pistoia Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,445 (+9%)	3mo	$875,000	$358	52
10614 Pistoia Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0	2,032 (-9%)	5mo	$745,000	$367	49
10362 Materita Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,913 (-15%)	8mo	$415,000	$217	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-83,485
• Equity at exit: $80,367

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-104,394
• Equity at exit: $46,603

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 811
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,380/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$641
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,176
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,241

Max offer price $539,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	24d	1	0.33mi
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	3d	1	0.33mi
10520 Casella Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	24d	1	0.34mi
10730 Cetrella Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,900	$4.43	24d	1	0.35mi
10529 Casella Way #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$4,500	$2.61	24d	1	0.38mi
10602 Camarelle Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1690	$5,500	$3.25	24d	1	0.43mi
10428 Materita Dr Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$6,250	$3.99	24d	1	0.47mi
10455 Casella Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2319	$7,200	$3.10	24d	1	0.51mi
10514 Bella Vista Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$6,500	$3.57	24d	1	0.54mi
11343 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1685	$4,000	$2.37	3d	1	0.60mi
11230 Suffield St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1560	$8,500	$5.45	24d	1	0.67mi
11225 Lithgow Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$8,000	$3.72	24d	1	0.70mi
11041 Iron Horse Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$4,000	$2.36	24d	1	0.70mi
11442 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$9,500	$4.73	24d	1	0.72mi
9918 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,200	$1.46	24d	1	0.76mi
10020 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	24d	1	0.82mi
10112 Colonial Country Club Blvd #209 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$5,000	$3.27	24d	1	0.82mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	24d	1	0.87mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	16d	1	0.87mi
11029 Mill Creek Way #405 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	24d	1	0.87mi
10121 Colonial Country Club Blvd #1802 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,800	$3.14	3d	1	0.87mi
10284 Livorno Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	3d	1	0.88mi
10298 Barberry Ln Unit 10298 Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2639	$3,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.91mi
10128 Colonial Country Club Blvd #602 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,600	$3.01	24d	1	0.95mi
10280 Crepe Jasmine Ln Unit 1546286P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,526	$2.88	16d	1	0.96mi
11900 Grosseto Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1713	$6,000	$3.50	19d	1	0.97mi
11900 Grosseto Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1713	$5,500	$3.21	24d	1	0.97mi
11701 Avingston Ter Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1553	$5,500	$3.54	14d	1	1.00mi
12021 Brassie Cir #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2343	$2,700	$1.15	3d	1	1.05mi
11012 Mill Creek Way #2205 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$5,500	$3.14	24d	1	1.08mi
10879 Rutherford Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1566	$3,500	$2.23	24d	1	1.09mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	24d	1	1.15mi
11012 Castlereagh St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2517	$12,000	$4.77	24d	1	1.22mi
11541 Stonecreek Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2147	$3,300	$1.54	24d	1	1.23mi
9561 Blue Stone Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,800	$1.27	24d	1	1.26mi
10053 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,400	$4.37	24d	1	1.33mi
10952 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$4,000	$2.53	24d	1	1.34mi
10063 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,100	$4.20	24d	1	1.35mi
9232 Aviano Dr Unit Amazing Aviano Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$5,500	$3.10	24d	1	1.38mi
10908 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$8,000	$5.58	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $641 · $7,692/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $539,000
3. 2026-03-09
   listed $549,000 Active
4. 1998-12-17
   soldstatus $1,188,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,380 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,380 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$5,380
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,374
• − Management: −$5,374
• − HOA: −$7,692
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$5,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $4,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $539,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $549,000 FORTMLS
• 1998-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,188,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,380 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.